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Tuesday, 13 November 2012

GBP/USD: Under Downward Pressure

GBP/USD trades below $1.6000. Yesterday the pair slid below the 50-day MA and entered the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Cable remains under downward pressure as yesterday the BoE Chief Mervin King signaled the regulator isready to launch the new monetary easing.

GBP/USD

“At this stage, it is difficult to know whether some of the recent more positive signs will persist,” King said in a speech in Cardiff, Wales. “Should those signs fade, the MPC does stand ready to inject more money into the economy.”

The Bank of England is in the final weeks of the 50 billion pound ($80 billion) round of QE it put in place in July. The MPC will announce its next policy decision on Nov. 8. The UK economy remains weak, while the inflation is low, so the regulator has enough reasons to extend the asset purchasing program.

Markets wait for the Thursday Q3 GDP release. Figures are expected to show the UK economy grew by 0.6% after three straight quarters of contraction.

We expect cable to gravitate towards $1.5900 (lower boundary of the Cloud, 50% Fib. retracement). Next support lies at $1.5820/05 (200- and 100-day MAs) and to $1.5750 (August 28 low). Resistance lies at $1.6000, $1.6178 (October 17 high), $1.6216 (October 5 high), $1.6271 (September 28 high) and $1.6300 (2012 maximum).

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