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Thursday 29 November 2012
Asian shares firm as investors square positions
European shares will likely pause, with financial spreadbetters predicting London's FTSE 100 .FTSE, Paris's CAC-40 .FCHI and Frankfurt's DAX.GDAXI will open down as much as 0.3 percent. A 0.2 percent drop in U.S. stock futures also hinted at a weaker Wall Street open. .L.EU.N
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outsid Technorati Tags: News e Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.6 percent to its highest since March 1, and was on course for a monthly gain of 2.1 percent.
"It just seems like one of those risk-on days where investors just pile onto stocks that they think will give them the most value," said Stan Shamu, market strategist at IG Markets.
Australian shares .AXJO added 0.6 percent to a fresh three-week high, aided by shares in mining and banks on firmer metals prices and a higher finish on Wall Street.
Shanghai shares .SSEC were up 0.9 percent and set for their first gain this week after slumping to their lowest in nearly four years earlier in the week, while Hong Kong .HSIshares rose 0.7 percent. Indian shares .BSESN moved up 0.8 percent to their highest in 19 months.
Amid unclear prospects for the U.S. budget talks and the apparently abating risk of an imminent Greece bankruptcy, investors sought trade incentives from data out of Asian countries on Friday and Saturday that could offer signals for the likely direction of global economic growth.
India's economy grew at a lower-than-expected annual 5.3 percent in the quarter ending in September, against analysts' forecast of 5.4 percent. Asia's third largest economy is still growing faster than many other major economies, but it has slowed from 6.5 percent in the 2011/12 fiscal year.
The data followed mixed reports from Japan, the world's third-largest economy, earlier in the day.
Japanese industrial output unexpectedly rose 1.8 percent in October, the first increase in four months, suggesting the negative impact of the global slowdown and a diplomatic row with China may have run its course.
But Japanese manufacturing activity contracted in November at the fastest pace in 19 months, according to a survey indicating it was hurt by falling exports, weak domestic demand and declining capital expenditure.
In South Korea, another big export-reliant economy, industrial output grew for a second month in a row in October, backing expectations for a recovery in the current quarter.
On Saturday, China will release the official manufacturing PMI for November, which is likely to show factory activity expanding at its fastest pace in seven months.
Japan's Nikkei stock average .N225 rose 0.5 percent to a seven-month closing high, posting its best month since February with a 5.8 percent gain. .T
Flows related to end-month demand drove the euro and the dollar higher against the yen. The dollar rose 0.3 percent to 82.36 yen, moving towards the 7-1/2-month high of 82.84 yen hit last week, while the euro jumped 0.6 percent to 107.12 yen, after hitting a seven-month high of 107.29 earlier.
"The market is subject to mood swings by investors who pay close attention to small developments in the U.S. budget talks, but as long as the yen does not rise far from current levels, we may see a slow but steady rise in the market," said Takuya Takahashi, an analyst at Daiwa Securities.
FISCAL SWINGS
Financial markets swung around on Thursday after comments by U.S. legislators dampened optimism that an agreement would be reached to avoid a series of tax hikes and spending cuts which could put the world's biggest economy back into recession.
The Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, John Boehner, indicated no substantive progress over the last two weeks in talks to reach a budget deal, less than 24 hours after he said he was "optimistic" about reaching a pact.
Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid struck back, saying later his party was still waiting for a reasonable proposal from the Republicans.
"We are trading day-to-day based on the running drama over the fiscal cliff, and the market doesn't look very optimistic at the moment," said Carl Larry, a derivatives broker with Atlas Commodities in Houston.
London copper rose 0.3 percent to $7,924 a metric ton (1.1023 tons) and spot gold inched up 0.3 percent to $1,730.36 an ounce, but prices were on track for their biggest weekly drop since the start of November with the U.S. fiscal talks hurting sentiment.
Oil fell, with U.S. crude futures down 0.3 percent to $87.81 a barrel and Brent easing 0.1 percent to $110.67.
The euro was up 0.2 percent to $1.3004, below $1.3015 on Thursday, its highest level since October 31.
The euro has been supported after global lenders earlier in the week agreed to unblock more aid to debt-stricken Greece, pushing down Italy's 10-year bond yield to its lowest in two years at an auction on Thursday.
Reflecting a general caution despite rising equities, Asian credit markets were lackluster, keeping the spreads on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment-grade index little changed.
(Additional reporting by Thuy Ong in Sydney, Ayai Tomisawa in Tokyo and Luke Pachymuthu in Singapore; Editing by Eric Meijer and Richard Borsuk)
Sensex rises after in-line GDP
(Reuters) - The rupee rose marginally, while stocks were broadly unchanged after the September quarter economic growth came in line with market estimates.
The Sensex extended gains to 0.5 percent from 0.3 percent before the data release.
The rupee was at 54.54/56 to the dollar against 54.61/64 previously.
The 10-year bond yield was at 8.17 percent, unchanged after the data. It was down 4 basis points after the central bank announced open market operations.
India's economy grew at a lower-than-expected 5.3 percent in the quarter ending in September, against analysts' forecast of 5.4 percent, government data showed on Friday.
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Q2 GDP
Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2012-13, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices, alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP.
Technorati Tags: News
Wednesday 28 November 2012
MARKET EYE-BSE above 19,000; Goldman Sachs upgrades Indian stocks
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* The BSE index rises 0.83 percent, crossing 19,000
points for the first time since Oct. 5, while the NSE index
gains 0.77 percent.
* Gains track Asian shares that hit three-week highs on Thursday
as sentiment improved after a senior U.S. lawmaker said he was
"optimistic" on reaching a budget deal before the end of the
year to avoid a fiscal crisis.
* Traders say Moody's stable outlook on India has eased
potential ratings downgrade worries from S&P and Fitch in the
near term.
* On Thursday Goldman Sachs upgraded Indian stocks to
'overweight' from 'market-weight', citing growth recovery and
inflation moderation ahead. The investment bank pegged December
2013 Nifty target at 6,600 points.
* Leading the gains were mortgage lender HDFC, up 2.4
percent; ICICI Bank gains 1.4 percent while Tata
Motors is up 3.17 percent.
Gold sees mild recovery after big sell-off
Gold prices staged a mild rebound Thursday in Asia on relief buying after they were slammed overnight over a host of concerns, disregarding for the moment optimism over the U.S. fiscal-cliff talks that boosted other risk assets.
Technorati Tags: News The mild recovery followed a convergence of technical selling, deflationary concerns and U.S. dollar strength that sank December futures by $25.80 during Wednesday’s regular session on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract had slumped as much as $36.80 at one point.
But analysts differed on the outlook for gold prices.
“The sell-off has shaken out many weaker buyers who will now be looking to sell the rallies rather than buy the dips,” said Fawad Razaqzada, a technical analyst at GFT Markets.
“We believe that such significant liquidation is unlikely to be repeated, and that gold prices will tend to stabilize above $1,700 [an ounce],” said James Steel, an analyst at HSBC Securities.
Gold’s most actively traded futures contract, meant for delivery in February GCG3 +0.20%, also climbed 0.3% to $1,723.20, while spot prices gained $1 to $1,720.80.
The advance came as the ICE dollar index DXY -0.04% , a gauge of the greenback’s moves against a basket of six other major currencies, was little changed at 80.268, compared with 80.262 in North American trade late Wednesday.
Gold investors also appeared to shrug off U.S. President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner’s optimism that lawmakers would reach an agreement to avert the fiscal cliff.
Uncertainty related to the cliff — a reference to the possibility that $600 billion worth of tax increases and spending cuts will kick in from January unless politicians reach an agreement — has tended to lure investors to gold’s safe-haven appeal in the recent past. A stronger dollar also usually hurts gold prices.
Among other metals, December futures for silver SIZ2 -0.01% and copper HGZ2 +0.28% rose 0.2% to $33.74 an ounce and 0.1% to $3.53 a pound, respectively.
Palladium futures PAZ2 -0.27% for delivery in the same month slipped 0.2% to $672 an ounce.
January platinum futures PLF3 -0.07% lost 0.2% to $1,608.60 an ounce.
New Home Sales in US
New Home Sales measures the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month. This report tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of Existing Home Sales because the reports are tightly correlated.
ACTUAL 368 K
FORECAST 390 K
PREVIOUS 389 K
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Crude oil made new one-week low
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Crude oil futures declined during European morning hours on Wednesday, trading near the lowest level in a week as a lack of progress in negotiations for a deal to avoid a U.S. budget crisis before a January deadline weighed on appetite for riskier assets.
Oil traders were focusing on closely-watched weekly supply data on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products from the U.S. Energy Information Administration later in the day.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in January traded at USD86.95 a barrel during European morning trade, down 0.25% on the day.
New York-traded oil prices fell by as much as 0.3% earlier in the day to hit a session low of USD86.92 a barrel.
Markets participants continued to monitor developments surrounding the looming “fiscal cliff” in the U.S., approximately USD600 billion in automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid spooked investors Tuesday after saying that there had been “little progress” made toward reaching a deal by the end of the year.
There are fears the U.S. economy will fall back into a recession, unless a divided Congress and the White House can work out a compromise in the five weeks left before the January 1 deadline.
Doubts over the Greek debt deal also weighed on sentiment. Greece’s constitutional lenders reached an agreement Tuesday to reduce Greece’s debt-reduction target by EUR40 billion to 124% of gross domestic product by 2020.
But the lack of detail on how Greece will implement reforms needed to meet its new debt targets dented investor confidence.
The news prompted investors to shun riskier assets, such as stocks and commodities, and flock to traditional safe haven assets like the U.S. dollar.
The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.1% to trade at 80.47.
A stronger dollar makes U.S. commodities more expensive for importers holding other currencies.
Oil traders now looked ahead to weekly data from the U.S. government on oil supplies later in the day to gauge the strength of demand from the world’s largest oil consumer.
The report was expected to show that U.S. crude oil stockpiles increased by 0.3 million barrels last week, while gasoline inventories were forecast to rise by 0.85 million barrels.
After markets closed Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said that U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.96 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks increased 2.28 million barrels.
The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil consuming country, responsible for almost 22% of global oil demand.
Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for January delivery shed 0.3% to trade at USD109.58 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD22.63 a barrel.
Dollar pushes higher vs. rivals ahead of U.S. data
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The U.S. dollar was pushed higher against the other major currencies on Wednesday, ahead of the release of U.S. economic data, as concerns over Greece's ability to handle its new debt target and U.S. fiscal policy decisions continued to dominate.
During European afternoon trade, the dollar was higher against the euro, with EUR/USD shedding 0.42% to 1.2889.
Although international lenders agreed on a plan to cut Greek debt, which will allow the country to secure more financial aid and avoid a default, market scepticism grew over a lack of detail on how Athens will implement the reforms needed to meet its new targets.
Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor developments surrounding the looming “fiscal cliff” in the U.S., approximately USD600 billion in automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1.
Sentiment weakened on Tuesday after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he was frustrated by the lack of progress in talks over the U.S. budget impasse in Washington.
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RECESSION CONTINUES IN GREECE
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While the European Union projects a return to growth for Greece in 2014, the OECD expects the country’s economy to shrink in 2014 by 1.3 percent, “due mostly to fiscal retrenchment,” revising its earlier estimate for growth of 0.2 percent. It expects a 4.5 percent contraction in GDP next year.
“If growth proves lower than assumed in the government’s fiscal plans, then the automatic stabilizers should be allowed to operate, even if this means missing the set targets,” the report states. “The most vulnerable strata will have to be protected from any further social cuts,” it adds.
The OECD sees public debt rising to 189 percent of GDP next year and to 195 percent in 2014 unless additional debt reduction measures are taken, from 177 percent this year. The report was drafted before the Eurogroup decision on Monday that eased Greece’s loan terms.
The budget deficit is expected to end up at 6.9 percent this year and drop to 4.6 percent in two years’ time. The current account deficit is seen dropping to 2.3 percent in 2014 from 5.5 percent this year, while exports are expected to grow by 6.1 percent by 2014 and imports to shrink by 3.2 percent.
The report adds that unemployment will continue to break one record after another and acknowledges that the economy suffered additional pressures this year owing to the tough but absolutely necessary fiscal adjustment process that has led to a reduction of salaries, trust and external demand.
The rebound is connected with the strengthening of international commerce, the restoration of confidence in Greece and the recovery of the country’s competitiveness. The OECD also sees a key role in the implementation of the structural measures that include the aggressive combating of tax evasion, an improvement in the efficiency of public administration, a lifting of market barriers and the opening up of competition.
Good China data, untraded shares slam market
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HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Good Chinese economic data seem to lead to bad Chinese stock performance lately, as investors appear more worried the government will hold back on stimulus, or dump shares on the market. Yet again, the Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 -0.89% headed to fresh multiyear lows Wednesday, trading 0.8% lower in the early afternoon after ending the morning at its lowest intraday level since January 2009.
Wednesday’s weakness follows Tuesday’s upbeat data showing profits at large industrial companies jumped 20.5% in October from a year earlier, as investors worried the numbers made it less likely that Beijing would offer credit-stimulus measures to support the economy in the immediate future.
Uwe Parpart, chief strategist at Reorient Financial in Hong Kong, said another big factor weighing on the market included concerns that untraded shares in state-owned corporations could soon be released to the public.
“It is the equivalent of a monetary overhang that could, at any given time, be released into the market, so it’s like a Damocles sword hanging,” he said.
Unlikely most other major stock markets, retail investors dominate in China in terms of their holdings in actively traded shares, while institutional investors are less prominent.
Parpart said this fact means China’s domestic market is more prone to crowd psychology and thus more vulnerable to selling pressure in spite of convincing data showing conditions are stabilizing.
Parpart wasn’t convinced the crowd was right, however, saying the Shanghai market was “a very compelling buying opportunity right now,” despite its downward trajectory.
Tuesday 27 November 2012
U.S. declines to name China currency manipulator
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By Anna Yukhananov
WASHINGTON | Wed Nov 28, 2012 6:45am IST
(Reuters) - The Obama administration said on Tuesday that China's currency remained "significantly undervalued," but stopped short of labeling the world's second-biggest economy a currency manipulator.
Although Beijing controls the pace at which the yuan can rise, the U.S. Treasury said in a congressionally mandated semi-annual report that China did not meet the legal requirements to be deemed a currency manipulator.
The label is largely symbolic, but would require Washington to open discussions with Beijing on adjusting the yuan's value.
It has been 18 years since the U.S. Treasury has designated any country a manipulator. China was labeled a manipulator between 1992 and 1994.
The latest report reflected both the administration's desire to maintain good relations with its top creditor and an attempt to keep up pressure for changes in China that could benefit the U.S. economy and mollify domestic critics.
The report noted that the yuan, also known as the renminbi, had risen 12.6 percent against the U.S. dollar in inflation-adjusted terms since June 2010. An official said it was up 9.7 percent on a nominal basis through Tuesday, when it closed at a record high.
The Treasury also said China had "substantially" reduced its intervention in foreign exchange markets since the third quarter of 2011 and had loosened capital controls.
"In light of these developments, Treasury has concluded that the standards ... have not been met with respect to China," it said. "Nonetheless, the available evidence suggests the renminbi remains significantly undervalued," the report added, echoing the Treasury's last assessment in May.
Ted Truman, a Treasury official under former President Bill Clinton, said it was important to keep a watchful eye on China's currency policy.
"We have the aftermath of 10 years of misbehavior," said Truman, who is now with the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "It would probably be unwise and too soon to declare victory."
During the U.S. presidential campaign, Republican candidate Mitt Romney pledged to label China a manipulator on his first day in office to show he would be tougher on the chief U.S. economic competitor than President Barack Obama.
Many U.S. businesses and lawmakers complain that Beijing keeps the value of its currency artificially low to gain an advantage in trade at the expense of American jobs.
But an international consensus is growing that the yuan is closing in on its fair value after about a decade at an artificially weak level. The International Monetary Fund softened its language on the yuan in July.
YUAN AT RECORD HIGH
Signs of a recovery in the Chinese economy and a new round of quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve have led traders to push the yuan higher.
But China's central bank has kept a lid on the move. The central bank allows the yuan to rise or fall by only 1 percent from whatever rate it sets each day.
Charles Schumer, the No. 3 Democrat in the U.S. Senate and a longtime critic of China's yuan policy, said the Treasury passed up an opportunity to level the trade playing field.
"It's time for the Obama administration to rip off the band-aid, and force China to play by the same rules as all other countries," the New York senator said in a statement.
But the U.S.-China Business Council, which represents U.S. companies that do business with China, applauded the decision.
"The exchange rate has little to do with the U.S. trade balance or employment," council President John Frisbie said. "We need to move on to more important issues with China, such as removing market access barriers and improving intellectual property protection."
The Treasury said further appreciation of the yuan would help China balance its economy toward consumption by giving households greater purchasing power.
It called on China to reduce its "exceptionally high" foreign exchange reserves and publish data about its intervention in currency markets.
The Obama administration also used the currency report to keep pressure on South Korea to limit its foreign exchange intervention.
South Korea says it intervenes to smooth the volatility of its won currency, but it has gone into the market throughout 2012, the Treasury report said. In July, the IMF said the won was undervalued by up to 10 percent.
"We will continue to press the Korean authorities to limit their foreign exchange interventions to the exceptional circumstances of disorderly market conditions," the report said.
(Reporting by Anna Yukhananov, additional reporting by Doug Palmer and Lesley Wroughton; Editing by James Dalgleish, Dan Grebler and Andre Grenon)
U.S. stocks fall on fears debt talks have stalled
By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch
Technorati Tags: News NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks dropped on Tuesday after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said little progress has been made in talks aimed at averting the so-called fiscal cliff.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.69% declined 89.24 points, or 0.7%, to end at 12,878.13, with 23 of its 30 components in negative territory. Hewlett-Packard Co.HPQ -2.98% was the top decliner in the Dow, with its shares slumping 3%. See: Former Autonomy CEO challenges H-P.
“The dominant item on the market’s mind continues to be the fiscal cliff,” Brad Sorensen, director of market and sector analysis at the Charles Schwab Center for Financial Research, said of negotiations on Capitol Hill.
The market’s intensified decline came after Sen. Reid, the Nevada Democrat, expressed disappointment to reporters about the negotiations to avert billions in automatic spending cuts and tax hikes set to start in the new year. See: Senate fiscal-cliff bickering spooks market.
Reid also said he agrees with President Barack Obama that Social Security should not be part of a fiscal-cliff deal.
“The staffers are doing the legwork, while their bosses are trying to find the cameras,” Art Hogan, market strategist at Lazard Capital Markets, said of legislative efforts to reach a deficit-cutting deal.
“The good news is, we’ll build the case for equities while waiting for Washington to have a crisis of common sense,” he said.
The S&P 500 index SPX -0.52% shed 7.35 points, or 0.5%, to close at 1,398.94, with utilities the strongest performing sector and energy and financials the worst among the 10 major industry groups.
The Nasdaq Composite index COMP -0.30% dropped 8.99 points, or 0.3%, to end at 2,967.79, snapping a six-session winning streak.
Around 689 million shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Composite volume topped 3.3 billion.
Greece loan approved
In Europe, finance ministers reduced the rates on loans granted in the first financial rescue of Greece in mid-2010, while approving the next loan installment for the nation in December.
The step did little, however, for the euroEURUSD -0.0866% , which fell against other currencies, including the U.S. dollarDXY +0.02% .
The euro’s decline “likely reflects selling on the fact, with an agreement long expected and the euro-zone economic outlook still underwhelming,” wrote Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo Bank.
Asia stocks decline as fiscal-cliff worries mount
By Sarah Turner, MarketWatch
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SYDNEY (MarketWatch) — Asia stocks slipped on Wednesday, with the health of the U.S. economy back on the agenda as investors looked toward January’s looming tax hikes and spending cuts.
The Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 -0.79% lost 0.8% in Tokyo trading, backing away from a seven-month high, while South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU -0.83% fell 0.9% in Seoul, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index AU:XJO -0.29% declined 0.5% in Sydney.
The Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.84% fell 0.7% in Hong Kong, while the Shanghai Composite index CN:000001 -0.69% lost 0.4% after touching a four-year low in the previous session.
Investors in Chinese shares were concerned about the outlook for corporate profits. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Tuesday in the latest edition of its twice-yearly economic outlook that “inventory levels at Chinese companies have been rising, bringing the risk of destocking if falling profitability puts pressure on companies to raise cash.”
OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría also warned that “the world economy is far from being out of the woods” and that “the U.S. ‘fiscal cliff,’ if it materializes, could tip an already weak economy into recession, while failure to solve the euro-area crisis could lead to a major financial shock and global downturn.” Read: OECD: Fiscal-cliff failure could trigger recession
U.S. stocks ended with losses Tuesday amid fresh concerns about the possibility of more than $600 billion of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts in January triggering weakness in the U.S. economy, as politicians continue to speak out about the issue.Read: U.S. stocks fall on fears debt talks have stalled
Tuesday saw Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid say that there had been “little progress” made toward reaching a deal by the end of the year. See full coverage of the upcoming "fiscal cliff".
The same concerns also hit the foreign-exchange market. BNP Paribas strategist Vassili Serebriako said that “clearly, as long as fiscal-cliff uncertainty is not resolved, the U.S. dollar is likely to see bouts of safe-haven demand.”
The ICE dollar index DXY +0.01% built on Tuesday strength during Asian trading hours Wednesday, reaching 80.405, from 80.344 in late North American trading. Read: Dollar gains after U.S. data, Greek deal
Gold futures, on the other hand, extended losses from Tuesday as the precious metal, along with other dollar-denominated commodities, reacted to the dollar’s strength. Read: Gold settles lower for a second straight session
Amid the weakness for commodity futures, energy firms fell in Hong Kong, with Cnooc Ltd. HK:883 -2.07% CEO -1.17% down 2.1% and PetroChina Co. HK:857 -1.75% PTR +0.17% lower by 1.4%.
Aluminium Corp. of China Ltd. ACH -1.30% HK:2600 -1.81% CN:601600 -0.64% declined by 1.5% in Hong Kong and by 0.4% in Shanghai, while Wuhan Iron & Steel Co.CN:600005 -4.69% lost 2% in mainland Chinese trading, and Angang Steel Co.CN:000898 -2.36% fell 1.8% in Shenzhen.
Metal firms also fell in Australia, with miner Rio Tinto Ltd. AU:RIO -1.89% RIO -1.93% down 2.1%, and rival BHP Billiton Ltd. AU:BHP -0.88% BHP -0.80% lower by 1.1%.
Mining services firm NRW Holdings Ltd. AU:NWH -17.22% tumbled 15.3% after flagging an expected fiscal-year revenue and margin reduction at its mining division.
Over in Tokyo, Japanese electronics firm Canon Inc. JP:7751 -2.37% CAJ -0.60% lost 2% after a Nikkei report that it is seeking to drastically shrink its consolidated inventory by the end of the year after its stocks hit a high in September not seen since 2008.
Fujitsu Ltd. JP:6702 -1.97% FJTSY 0.00% traded down 1.6% after a separate Nikkei report that it will allocate some 100 billion yen ($1.2 billion) to add needed capital to a pension fund at its U.K. unit.
Exporters were generally weak in Japanese trading Wednesday, as the yen remained in a tight range against the dollar and euro.
Major exporters had led much of the gains for the Japanese index over the past days, but Wednesday morning saw Pioneer Corp. JP:6773 -5.91% PNCOF -35.19% retreat 5.9%, while car maker Mazda Motor Corp. JP:7261 -2.34% MZDAF +7.45% lost 2.3%.
Sony Corp. JP:6758 -1.35% SNE -1.62% fell 1.1% amid a Reuters report that investment banks had approached the firm over the possible sale of its battery-making business.
In Seoul, technology firms also saw losses, with LG Electronics Inc. KR:066570 -2.60% LGEIY 0.00% down 2% and SK Hynix Inc. KR:000660 -0.39% HXSCL 0.00% down 1.8%.
SEC Charges Four India-Based Brokerage Firms with Violating U.S. Registration Requirements
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The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged four financial services firms based in India for providing brokerage services to institutional investors in the United States without being registered with the SEC as required under the federal securities laws.
The four firms – Ambit Capital Private Limited, Edelweiss Financial Services Limited, JM Financial Institutional Securities Private Limited, and Motilal Oswal Securities Limited – agreed to pay more than $1.8 million combined to settle the SEC’s charges.
Hollande threatens ‘nationalisation’ of French Mittal plant
President Francois Hollande said Tuesday that nationalising ArcelorMittal’s plant in northeastern France would be on the table in talks later with the steel giant’s chief Lakshmi Mittal.
“The nationalisation is part of the subjects of the discussion,” Hollande told a joint press conference with Belgian Prime Minister Elio Di Rupo, adding that this would apply only to the Florange plant and “in no way the entire group”.
“I will meet in a few minutes with Mr. Mittal to see what answer he can give us in respect to this requirement for us to keep the site as it is today,” Hollande said.
“I will give you the answer when I have myself obtained it, but our will is to ensure that the entire site is sustainable,” he said.
France has threatened to temporarily nationalise the Florange plant, where Mittal has given the government until Saturday to find a buyer for two shuttered blast furnaces.
The government says it has two offers, but only for the entire Florange site including other facilities which Mittal wants to retain and keep operating.
Mittal has refused to sell the full operation and warned that nationalisation of the Florange facilities would threaten the viability of all of its activities across France, where it employs 20,000 people.
“The nationalisation is part of the subjects of the discussion,” Hollande told a joint press conference with Belgian Prime Minister Elio Di Rupo, adding that this would apply only to the Florange plant and “in no way the entire group”.
“I will meet in a few minutes with Mr. Mittal to see what answer he can give us in respect to this requirement for us to keep the site as it is today,” Hollande said.
“I will give you the answer when I have myself obtained it, but our will is to ensure that the entire site is sustainable,” he said.
France has threatened to temporarily nationalise the Florange plant, where Mittal has given the government until Saturday to find a buyer for two shuttered blast furnaces.
The government says it has two offers, but only for the entire Florange site including other facilities which Mittal wants to retain and keep operating.
Mittal has refused to sell the full operation and warned that nationalisation of the Florange facilities would threaten the viability of all of its activities across France, where it employs 20,000 people.
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Rupee snaps five-day losing streak; banks sell dollars
By Swati Bhat
MUMBAI | Tue Nov 27, 2012 9:41pm IST
(Reuters) - The rupee snapped a five-day losing streak on Tuesday as custodian banks sold dollars on the back of sharp gains in the domestic share market, but persistent dollar demand from oil refiners to meet month-end requirements capped the gains.
Traders are also hopeful the government would succeed in pushing through key reforms in the winter session, despite the parliament having been adjourned for a fourth day.
Moody's also reiterated that its outlook on India's sovereign rating of Baa3 remains stable, citing the country's high savings and investment rates.
"The way the rupee had been moving for the past few days it appeared that we might have hit 56 today itself, but it received some respite from gains in stocks and the euro," said Paresh Nayar, head of fixed income and forex trading at First Rand Bank.
"There seem to have been good custodian flows today. Demand from oilers was persistent since the last few days. Trade deficit numbers will be crucial now. Market could see a wide and choppy range of 54.30 and 56.20 in the next few days," Nayar added.
The Sensex posted its biggest daily gain in more than two months as investor sentiment turned positive on growing hopes the government would push through reforms to stimulate growth and avoid a ratings downgrade.
The partially convertible rupee closed at 55.45/46 per dollar up 0.5 percent versus its previous close of 55.73/74 on Monday.
Foreign fund flows into and out of the share market have a huge influence on the rupee's fortunes. Foreign funds have bought shares worth more than $19 billion so far in 2012 but the rupee remains down about 4.3 percent.
Traders said oil refiners, the biggest buyers of dollars in the domestic currency market have been buying continuously over the last few days to meet their month-end import commitments, hurting the rupee.
Lack of dollar inflows had also exaggerated the fall due to oil demand, traders said. The central bank is expected to step in and sell dollars to prevent the rupee from slipping below 56, traders said.
Euro's gains versus the dollar also aided the rupee. The euro bounced to a one-month high against the dollar on Tuesday after international lenders agreed a new debt target for Greece, but eased back after a Fed policymaker's comments boosted the U.S. currency.
In the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, the one-month contract was at 55.72 while the three-month was at 56.30.
In the currency futures market, the most-traded near-term dollar/rupee contracts on the National Stock Exchange, the MCX-SX and the United Stock Exchange all closed at around 55.7250 with a total traded volume at around $5.97 billion.
(Editing by Anand Basu)
Wall Street down as "fiscal cliff" scares investors away
By Angela Moon
NEW YORK | Tue Nov 27, 2012 10:25pm IST
(Reuters) - Stocks fell on Tuesday as worries over the impact of "fiscal cliff" on the economy overshadowed progress in easing Greece's debt burden and a slew of positive U.S. economic data.
A deal in Europe to release emergency aid to debt-laden Greece gave a brief, early lift to stocks, but the news was not enough to sustain the gains as investors confronted the looming "fiscal cliff" at home.
As Democrats and Republicans prepared to resume efforts to bridge their sharp differences over taming the federal debt this week in Washington, the market resumed its cautious mode.
"It's like there is nothing else but the fiscal cliff now. It is too big of an issue both economically and politically for investors to just brush off," said Jack DeGan, chief investment officer at Harbor Advisory Corp in Portsmouth, New Hampshire.
The market's worry is whether Congress and the White House can agree on ways to avoid some $600 billion in automatic spending cuts and tax increases that are due to kick early next year. Some fear dramatic fiscal restraint could send the economy into recession.
"It's hard for markets to move on fundamentals now. Even if they do, they quickly come back to being cautious. Investors may buy on small dips but they don't stay in that position for long," DeGan said.
Market reaction was muted to data that showed Americans' confidence in November hit the highest level in more than four years and home prices in September rose for an eighth straight month.
In addition, a gauge of planned U.S. business spending increased by the most in five months in October, data on durable goods orders showed.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 37.35 points, or 0.29 percent, at 12,930.02. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 2.75 points, or 0.20 percent, at 1,403.54. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 4.21 points, or 0.14 percent, at 2,972.58.
As of Monday's close, the S&P 500 was holding above the 1,400, the level it reclaimed last week. But volume continued to be weak as traders awaited any progress to avert the fiscal restraint. Last week, the S&P 500 advanced nearly 4 percent.
Among individual stocks, Corning Inc (GLW.N) shares rose 6.3 percent to $12.07 after the specialty glass maker said it expects full-year sales of its Gorilla glass, used in smartphones and tablets, to approach $1 billion.
McMoRan Exploration Co (MMR.N) shares tumbled 22 percent to $7.55 after the oil and gas explorer said on Monday that it could not achieve a measurable flow test at its key Davy Jones No. 1 well in the Gulf of Mexico.
(Reporting By Angela Moon; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio and Kenneth Barry)
Gazans say "Thank you Iran" after Israel conflagration
By Nidal al-Mughrabi
GAZA | Tue Nov 27, 2012 10:22pm IST
(Reuters) - Gazans offered very public thanks to Iran on Tuesday for helping them in this month's fight against Israel, when Iranian-made missiles were fired out of the Palestinian enclave towards Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
"Thank you Iran", said large billboards on three major road junctions in the Gaza Strip - the first time there has been such public acknowledgement of Iran's role in the arming of Islamic militants in the tiny territory.
The message was written in Arabic, English, Hebrew and Farsi. The posters also depicted the Iranian Fajr 5 rockets that were used for the first time to target Israel's two largest population centres. No one was injured in the attacks.
The billboards were not signed, but a senior official with the militant group Islamic Jihad, Khader Habib, said it was only natural to show gratitude for Iran's role in the conflict.
"Iranian rockets struck at Tel Aviv. They reached out to Jerusalem. Therefore it was our duty to thank those who helped our people," he told Reuters.
"We have distinctive, good relations with Iran and such a relationship will continue as long as Iran supports the Palestinian people and backs up the resistance," he added.
Israel launched an air offensive on November 14 with the stated aim of stopping Gaza militants from firing rockets at its southern towns and cities.
About 170 Palestinians, more than half of them civilians, died in the fighting that ended in a ceasefire last Wednesday. Six Israelis were also killed, four of them civilians.
Israel has always asserted that arch-foe Tehran supplied Gaza with weapons, but until the latest conflict both Iran and Gaza's dominant Islamist group Hamas had side-stepped the issue, acknowledging only financial backing and warm political ties.
During the eight-day conflagration, the Iranian speaker of parliament, Ali Larijani, said Iran was "honoured" to have provided Gaza with military aid. Following the ceasefire, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal thanked Iran for arms and funding.
The public statements appeared aimed at dispelling speculation that the mainly Sunni Muslim Gaza Strip was shutting the door on Shi'ite Iran and turning instead to neighbouring Egypt for support and protection.
Israeli analyst Meir Javedanfar said he thought the Iranians would regret telling the world they supplied Hamas with arms.
"Now that such high-ranking officials openly admit to having supplied weapons to groups in Gaza, the job of isolating Iran will be even easier than before," said Javedanfar, an Iranian expert at the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) in Herzliya.
Israel and many Western countries say Iran is developing nuclear weapons and have imposed increasingly stringent sanctions on the Islamic Republic to get it to halt its uranium enrichment drive. Tehran says its atomic programme is peaceful.
Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, refuses to recognise Israel's right to exist and is shunned as a terrorist organisation by the United States and the European Union. (Editing by Crispian Balmer and Alison Williams)
Dollar gains after U.S. data, Greek deal
By Deborah Levine and Michael Kitchen, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The dollar gains ground after a U.S. economic report was better than expected, relieving some worries that a standoff in Washington about taxes and federal spending has hampered business activity or consumer confidence.
The euro briefly tapped the psychologically important $1.30 level after news of a deal to clear the way for Greece’s next aid payment.
The euro EURUSD -0.26% fell to $1.2943, having gradually given up gains seen in Asia and versus $1.2961 in late trading Monday in North America. It hasn’t closed above $1.30 since Oct. 23, according to FactSet.
The ICE dollar index DXY +0.33% , which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose to 80.355 from 80.227 late Monday.
Orders for U.S. durable goods were flat in October, defying economists’ forecast for a decline, mainly because of slack demand for autos and aircraft and a reversal in defense orders. See: U.S. durable-goods orders flat in October.
But excluding the volatile defense and transportation industries, so-called core capital orders jumped 1.7%. That category is seen as an indicator of the health of the broader U.S. manufacturing sector.
“Given the uncertainties surrounding the resolution of the fiscal cliff, this report should be viewed as modestly encouraging news on the outlook for the factory sector,” said economists at RDQ Economics.
Separate reports showed U.S. home prices continued to improve in September and consumer confidence rose this month. See: Consumer confidence hits postrecession peak.
FISCAL CLIFF | Fiscal-cliff complete coverage »
• Do nothing ahead of 'cliff'?
• 'Cliff' will clip Powerball winner
• Norquist says GOP won't cave
• 10 people who led us to the cliff
• Bernanke presses lawmakers
• Buffett calls for millionaire's tax
• What fiscal cliff would cost you
Investors will still largely focus on any news about negotiations between the White House and Congress on the so-called fiscal cliff — a series of tax and spending measures that expire at year-end and threaten to push the U.S. back into a recession.
Still, the U.S. dollar is mainly influenced by the relative attractiveness of economic prospects -- not the absolute outlook, noted Sameer Samana, international strategist for Wells Fargo Advisors.
In other words, as long as the U.S. is doing better than other countries, the dollar should see support. And indeed, the economies of the euro zone, Japan and Great Britain are doing worse.
“While the U.S. could be in better shape, it remains attractive from a relative standpoint,” he wrote in a report. “Interest-rate differentials have been moving in the favor of the U.S. as Japan has maintained near-zero rates while the euro-zone and the U.K. have also been moving lower.”
But the $1.30 level remains elusive for the common currency, said analysts.
“It appears that there is some determined selling interest up at $1.30, including some big players who are protecting options positions,” wrote Michael Derks, chief strategist at FxPro, in emailed remarks.
In addition, he said investors will likely refocus on Spain after Catalonian elections over the weekend resulted in big wins for pro-independence parties. Catalan President Artur Mas has been pushing for a referendum on independence for the region from Spain.
The dollar’s loss extended a downward trend since the middle of last week, when the index sat well above 81. Crédit Agricole strategists said the greenback’s decline had “almost wiped out half its rally since Oct. 17” and looked likely to continue in the short term.
“Most commentators are ascribing [dollar] weakness to the improving risk appetite, but [...] the reality is that there is probably a bout of profit-taking rather than any major shift in [dollar] sentiment,” the Crédit Agricole strategists said.
Among other major currency pairs, the British pound GBPUSD -0.01% edged up to $1.6031 from $1.6015 late Monday, when the Bank of England surprisingly named Bank of Canada head Mark Carney to its top post. Picking Carney is one of Osborner’s better choices.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar USDJPY +0.21% traded at ¥82.25 compared with ¥82.17.
Deborah Levine is a MarketWatch reporter, based in San Francisco. Follow her on Twitter @dlevineMW.Michael Kitchen is Asia editor for MarketWatch and is based in Los Angeles.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The dollar gains ground after a U.S. economic report was better than expected, relieving some worries that a standoff in Washington about taxes and federal spending has hampered business activity or consumer confidence.The euro briefly tapped the psychologically important $1.30 level after news of a deal to clear the way for Greece’s next aid payment.
The euro EURUSD -0.26% fell to $1.2943, having gradually given up gains seen in Asia and versus $1.2961 in late trading Monday in North America. It hasn’t closed above $1.30 since Oct. 23, according to FactSet.
The ICE dollar index DXY +0.33% , which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose to 80.355 from 80.227 late Monday.
Orders for U.S. durable goods were flat in October, defying economists’ forecast for a decline, mainly because of slack demand for autos and aircraft and a reversal in defense orders. See: U.S. durable-goods orders flat in October.
But excluding the volatile defense and transportation industries, so-called core capital orders jumped 1.7%. That category is seen as an indicator of the health of the broader U.S. manufacturing sector.
“Given the uncertainties surrounding the resolution of the fiscal cliff, this report should be viewed as modestly encouraging news on the outlook for the factory sector,” said economists at RDQ Economics.
Separate reports showed U.S. home prices continued to improve in September and consumer confidence rose this month. See: Consumer confidence hits postrecession peak.
FISCAL CLIFF | Fiscal-cliff complete coverage »
• Do nothing ahead of 'cliff'?
• 'Cliff' will clip Powerball winner
• Norquist says GOP won't cave
• 10 people who led us to the cliff
• Bernanke presses lawmakers
• Buffett calls for millionaire's tax
• What fiscal cliff would cost you
Investors will still largely focus on any news about negotiations between the White House and Congress on the so-called fiscal cliff — a series of tax and spending measures that expire at year-end and threaten to push the U.S. back into a recession.
Still, the U.S. dollar is mainly influenced by the relative attractiveness of economic prospects -- not the absolute outlook, noted Sameer Samana, international strategist for Wells Fargo Advisors.
In other words, as long as the U.S. is doing better than other countries, the dollar should see support. And indeed, the economies of the euro zone, Japan and Great Britain are doing worse.
“While the U.S. could be in better shape, it remains attractive from a relative standpoint,” he wrote in a report. “Interest-rate differentials have been moving in the favor of the U.S. as Japan has maintained near-zero rates while the euro-zone and the U.K. have also been moving lower.”
Greece, Spain
The brief pop for the euro during Asian trading hours followed news that Greece’s creditors reached a long-awaited deal to pave the way for Athens to receive fresh financial aid. See: Euro zone, IMF agree on Greece debt deal.But the $1.30 level remains elusive for the common currency, said analysts.
“It appears that there is some determined selling interest up at $1.30, including some big players who are protecting options positions,” wrote Michael Derks, chief strategist at FxPro, in emailed remarks.
In addition, he said investors will likely refocus on Spain after Catalonian elections over the weekend resulted in big wins for pro-independence parties. Catalan President Artur Mas has been pushing for a referendum on independence for the region from Spain.
The dollar’s loss extended a downward trend since the middle of last week, when the index sat well above 81. Crédit Agricole strategists said the greenback’s decline had “almost wiped out half its rally since Oct. 17” and looked likely to continue in the short term.
“Most commentators are ascribing [dollar] weakness to the improving risk appetite, but [...] the reality is that there is probably a bout of profit-taking rather than any major shift in [dollar] sentiment,” the Crédit Agricole strategists said.
Among other major currency pairs, the British pound GBPUSD -0.01% edged up to $1.6031 from $1.6015 late Monday, when the Bank of England surprisingly named Bank of Canada head Mark Carney to its top post. Picking Carney is one of Osborner’s better choices.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar USDJPY +0.21% traded at ¥82.25 compared with ¥82.17.
Deborah Levine is a MarketWatch reporter, based in San Francisco. Follow her on Twitter @dlevineMW.Michael Kitchen is Asia editor for MarketWatch and is based in Los Angeles.
Monday 26 November 2012
Moody’s says India’s rating outlook is stable
Moody's said on Tuesday that the outlook on its Baa3 rating for India is stable, in part due to the country's high savings and investment rates, as debate rages here over whether the country can avoid credit downgrades from other rating agencies.
In its annual credit analysis on India, which Moody's said does not constitute a rating action, the agency also cited the country's large, diverse economy and strong gross domestic product growth as supportive of the rating.
However, Moody's said: "The rating is constrained by the credit challenges posed by country's poor social and physical infrastructure, high government deficit and debt ratios, recurrent inflationary pressures and an uncertain operating environment."
Moody's said that although country's GDP growth remains above that of its rating peers, it has slowed from about 8.4% in FY 2010 and FY 2011 to 5.3% in the first half of 2012. Persistent domestic inflation and wide fiscal deficits precluded domestic policy loosening to combat the global growth downturn over the last year.
Starting in September 2012, the government announced measures to spur infrastructure development, allowed increased foreign investment, and rein in the fiscal deficit. However, in Moody's view, given the delayed timing and still modest scope of these measures, growth may remain subdued in the near term amid continued domestic political uncertainty and a global slowdown.
According to Moody's the government's annual deficits tend to be among the highest within the Baa range, and have proven relatively more vulnerable to growth downturns due to elastic revenues and rigid expenditures. Although absolute debt levels have risen steadily, the government's debt to GDP ratio has been declining over the last few years, partly due to higher inflation.
Last month, Standard & Poor's warned India still faced a one-in-three chance of a credit rating downgrade over the next 24 months, although it said a series of reform steps launched in September had slightly improved the country's prospects.
Fitch also has a negative outlook on India. Having faced a series of revenue-raising setbacks, the government is grappling with a widening fiscal deficit that threatens to undermine the country's credit standing and possibly trigger a downgrade to junk status.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram has an ambitious target of holding the government's fiscal deficit for 2012/13 at 5.3 per cent of gross domestic product, even as sceptical private economists forecast a deficit closer to 6 per cent.
Source: Indiatimes
Thursday 15 November 2012
Eurozone falls back into recession
The eurozone fell back into recession in the third quarter after the combined economy of the 17-member bloc contracted for the second consecutive month, dragged down by the Netherlands and peripheral nations.
Eurostat, the EU’s statistics office said the region’s economy
The wider EU avoided recession after recording growth of 0.1 per cent in the third quarter, largely thanks to an Olympics-related boost in the UK.
Germany and France expanded in the third quarter, but the outlook remained bleak as the crisis engulfing the eurozone takes its toll on the region’s largest economies.
France escaped recession as its economy unexpectedly grew 0.2 per cent in the three months ending September from a revised 0.1 per cent contraction in the previous quarter, said Insee, France’s national statistics agency.
Meanwhile, German economic growth slowed in the same period, meeting analysts’ forecasts, adding to evidence that Europe’s largest economy is flagging on the back of the crisis. GDP rose 0.2 per cent after growing 0.3 per cent in the second quarter.
There was little optimism about future growth. Andreas Rees, chief German economist at UniCredit, said that the latest data should be taken “with a pinch of salt” as the deepening recession in several eurozone countries will continue to have a negative impact on German manufacturing and exports.
“On average, our growth forecast [for Germany] remains on track with economic activity remaining flat or even shrinking slightly in the second half of this year,” he said.
The Netherlands, the eurozone’s fifth-largest economy, suffered much more than expected in the third quarter, contracting 1.1 per cent from the previous three months. Many economists had expected a contraction of about 0.2 per cent.
Economists said that Germany and the Netherlands were being affected by the deepening recession in the southern European countries as GDP growth continued to contract in Greece, Portugal and Spain.
The spillover of the debt crisis that has engulfed Europe’s peripherywas also evident from eurozone industrial production data, which fell at the fastest rate in three years in September, down 2.5 per cent from August.
France’s slight increase in economic activity – the first spout of economic growth for a year – provides little respite in a country suffering from rising unemployment, depressed business sentiment and contracting industrial output.
“France’s GDP rise is certainly surprising and somewhat at odds with the general tone of the surveys and data,” said Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight. “The rise in consumer spending seems unlikely to be sustained given high and rising unemployment, low confidence and an increasing fiscal squeeze so we suspect there will be French contraction in the fourth quarter.”
The International Monetary Fund warned this month that France risks falling behind crisis-hit Italy and Spain unless it pushed through key reforms to boost competitiveness and stimulate its ailing economy.
President François Hollande, who has come under mounting criticism for being ineffective at managing the French economy, vowed late last month to stem the country’s industrial decline by taking urgent action, including cutting high labour costs.
Eurozone falls back into recession
The eurozone fell back into recession in the third quarter after the combined economy of the 17-member bloc contracted for the second consecutive month, dragged down by the Netherlands and peripheral nations.
Eurostat, the EU’s statistics office said the region’s economy contracted by 0.1 per cent in June to September, compared with the previous three months. This follows from a 0.2 per cnet decline in the second quarter.
The wider EU avoided recession after recording growth of 0.1 per cent in the third quarter, largely thanks to an Olympics-related boost in the UK.
Germany and France expanded in the third quarter, but the outlook remained bleak as the crisis engulfing the eurozone takes its toll on the region’s largest economies.
France escaped recession as its economy unexpectedly grew 0.2 per cent in the three months ending September from a revised 0.1 per cent contraction in the previous quarter, said Insee, France’s national statistics agency.
Meanwhile, German economic growth slowed in the same period, meeting analysts’ forecasts, adding to evidence that Europe’s largest economy is flagging on the back of the crisis. GDP rose 0.2 per cent after growing 0.3 per cent in the second quarter.
There was little optimism about future growth. Andreas Rees, chief German economist at UniCredit, said that the latest data should be taken “with a pinch of salt” as the deepening recession in several eurozone countries will continue to have a negative impact on German manufacturing and exports.
“On average, our growth forecast [for Germany] remains on track with economic activity remaining flat or even shrinking slightly in the second half of this year,” he said.
The Netherlands, the eurozone’s fifth-largest economy, suffered much more than expected in the third quarter, contracting 1.1 per cent from the previous three months. Many economists had expected a contraction of about 0.2 per cent.
Economists said that Germany and the Netherlands were being affected by the deepening recession in the southern European countries as GDP growth continued to contract in Greece, Portugal and Spain.
The spillover of the debt crisis that has engulfed Europe’s peripherywas also evident from eurozone industrial production data, which fell at the fastest rate in three years in September, down 2.5 per cent from August.
France’s slight increase in economic activity – the first spout of economic growth for a year – provides little respite in a country suffering from rising unemployment, depressed business sentiment and contracting industrial output.
“France’s GDP rise is certainly surprising and somewhat at odds with the general tone of the surveys and data,” said Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight. “The rise in consumer spending seems unlikely to be sustained given high and rising unemployment, low confidence and an increasing fiscal squeeze so we suspect there will be French contraction in the fourth quarter.”
The International Monetary Fund warned this month that France risks falling behind crisis-hit Italy and Spain unless it pushed through key reforms to boost competitiveness and stimulate its ailing economy.
President François Hollande, who has come under mounting criticism for being ineffective at managing the French economy, vowed late last month to stem the country’s industrial decline by taking urgent action, including cutting high labour costs.
BREAKING NEWS : - Lacker Says Fed Bond Buying Has Few Benefits and Risks Inflation
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said the Fed’s third round of bond buying will increase inflation risks and complicate the pull- back from record stimulus while not fueling economic growth.
“The benefits of that action are likely to be small, because it’s unlikely to improve growth without also causing an unwelcome increase in inflation,” Lacker said today in remarks prepared for a speech at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville. “Adding to our balance sheet increases the risks we’ll have to move quickly when the time comes to normalize monetary policy and begin raising rates.”
The economy is recovering at a “relatively sluggish” pace, and the decline in unemployment “has been disappointingly slow,” Lacker said today to students, faculty and business leaders. Low housing demand, shaken consumer confidence and “political gridlock” among lawmakers unable to agree on a federal budget plan are inhibiting the expansion, he said.
Lacker, who has dissented against every Federal Open Market Committee decision this year, has said he opposed new asset purchases because allocating credit is the responsibility of Treasury or Congress. The Fed last month said it will purchase $40 billion in mortgage bonds a month and hold the main interest rate near zero until at least mid-2015.
The Fed’s third round of quantitative easing, announced Sept. 13, has no end date or fixed total amount, unlike the first two programs of bond buying. In the first, starting in 2008, the Fed bought $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities, $175 billion of federal agency debt and $300 billion of Treasuries. In the second round, announced in November 2010, the Fed bought $600 billion of Treasuries.
Initial Claims
A report from the Labor Department yesterday showed that initial claims for unemployment benefits declined last week to a four-year low, which may have reflected difficulty adjusting the data for seasonal swings. The jobless rate unexpectedly fell in September to 7.8 percent, the lowest since President Barack Obama took office in January 2009.
The world’s largest economy expanded at a 1.3 percent pace from April through June, slower than a prior estimate of 1.7 percent, after growing at a 2 percent rate in the first quarter. Economists predict gross domestic product will grow 1.8 percent in the third quarter and 1.9 percent in the fourth, according to the median of 92 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.
Lacker said in Sept. 15 statement that he “strongly opposed” buying more mortgage bonds because the purchases will “distort investment allocations and raise interest rates for other borrowers.” He said that “channeling the flow of credit to particular economic sectors is an inappropriate role for the Federal Reserve,” according to the statement.
Record Stimulus
Also last month, the Fed district bank chief said that even the central bank’s use of record stimulus may not be enough to cut the jobless rate because of the severity of the shock from the credit crisis. Monetary policy can’t offset how “various frictions impede the economy’s adjustment to various shocks,” Lacker said in a Sept. 18 speech in New York.
Lacker, 56, dissented four times in 2006 in favor of higher interest rates. He has been president of the reserve bank since 2004 and previously was its director of research. The Richmond Fed district includes Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and most of West Virginia.
SOURCE :- BLOOMBERG
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