IEA Hikes 2013 Global Oil Demand, Non-OPEC Supply Forecasts

The International Energy Agency hiked its forecasts for global oil demand for this year and the next and lifted its projections for non-OPEC supply in 2013, the agency said in its Monthly Oil Market Report on Wednesday.

Despite the upward forecast revision for 2013, the IEA still said it expects "relatively sluggish demand growth" over the year, "as global economic expansion remains tepid."

IEA hiked its forecasts for 4Q global demand by 435 kb/d over last month to around 90.5 mb/d, more than reversing the previous forecast's 300 kb/d cut. Forecasts for overall demand this year and the next were increased by 100 kb/d to 89.7 mb/d and 90.5 mb/d, respectively.

The IEA said the relatively stable demand forecasts for 2012 overall have also been masked by mutually offsetting revisions in certain regions and quarters.

Global oil production increased by 730 kb/d to 91.6 mb/d in November. With non-OPEC production rebounding "strongly" in November to 54.0 mb/d, the IEA revised up its forecasts for non-OPEC 4Q supply by 30 kb/d to 53.8 mb/d. For next year, the agency expects non-OPEC production to rise by 890 kb/d - the fastest pace since 2010 - to 54.2 mb/d.

Overshadowed by the jump in non-OPEC output, OPEC supply rose by "a marginal" 75 kb/d to 31.22 last month, the agency noted. OPEC crude supply increases were led by Saudi Arabia, Angola, Algeria and Libya. This was partly offset by a one-off downturn in Nigeria due to weather and ongoing cutbacks in Iran due to sanctions and shipping constraints.

With OPEC ministers meeting in Vienna later Wednesday, the IEA said the group was "widely expected" to keep its output ceiling at the current target of 30 mb/d given the stable prices, despite production over the year averaging 1.5 mb/d above the target.

The IEA hiked its "call" on OPEC crude and/or stocks by 400 kb/d for 4Q, but left its "call" for 2013 unchanged at 29.9 mb/d. OPEC's 'effective' spare capacity last month was lowered to 2.49 mb/d from 2.51 mb/d in October, the agency added.

OECD commercial stocks fell by 16.2 million barrels in October to 2.722 billion barrels, following seven consecutive months of increases, the agency reported, adding that preliminary data suggested a further draw in November.

Crude oil price volatility has moderated since the start of the year and prices have been easing "gently" in recent months, but the IEA said this masked some regional volatility and uncertainty. Plunging European demand in 3Q was offset by robust Asian demand, causing "an apparent acceleration in the eastward shift of global oil demand growth."

"There is a clear contrast not only in oil demand trends, but also in economic growth between Europe and Asia. North America falls somewhere in the middle. Everywhere, uncertainty prevails," the IEA wrote. "Whether the recent plunge in European oil demand is part of a trend or just a one-off is unclear. Early data show demand bouncing back in October, but may be revised."

WTI crude futures fell by $2.84/bbl in November to $86.73/bbl while Brent was down just under $2/bbl to $109.53/bbl according to IEA. The benchmark crudes inched down further in early December, with WTI last trading at $85.90/bbl and Brent at $107.85/bbl.

Still, IEA noted that Brent futures prices are on track to surpass 2011 record levels this year, buoyed by "heightened political risks" in key suppliers.

 

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Mayawati backs UPA on FDI

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With BSP supremo Mayawati lending her support to the government in Rajya Sabha on the contentious issue of FDI in retail , the 50-share NSE benchmark Niftytouched a 20-month high of 5,937.40.At 15.06 pm, the Sensex was up 78.5 points at 19470, and the Nifty up 23 points at 5923.4. The Sensex witnessed a 300-point reversal intra-day. Broader markets too are witnessing marked upmove with huge volumes being traded.

After a thumping victory in the Lok Sabha, FDI in multi-brand retail battle has shifted to Rajya Sabha. Mayawati's move today has clearly strengthened UPAs hands, and it appears the voting on Friday will go in favour of the ruling party. Political experts say the government has very tactfully played Samajwadi against the BSP, which helped in it getting closer to the number needed to win the Rajya Sabha vote.

Top Nifty gainers include Jaiprakash Associates, DLF, Axis Bank, Reliance Infra and Tata Motors. Among the sectoral indices, the BSE Realty Index gained, the BSE Auto Index and the BSE Metal Index pared all its losses. The IT index, however, remained in the red.

Eurozone Recession Confirmed

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The euro area economy slid into recession in the third quarter, an updated report from Eurostat confirmed Thursday.

The gross domestic product fell 0.1 percent from a quarter ago, when it dropped 0.2 percent. The figures matched the preliminary estimate released on November 15.

Household final consumption expenditure remained unchanged in the third quarter, following 0.4 percent fall in the second quarter. This was expected to show a 0.2 percent decline.

Government spending dropped 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter against expectations for no change. Investment declined 0.7 percent following 1.8 percent fall in the second quarter. This was roughly in line with forecast for a 0.8 percent drop.

During the three months to September, exports rose 0.9 percent and imports expanded 0.2 percent compared to the previous three-month period.

Annually, GDP fell 0.6 percent in the third quarter. This comes after a 0.5 percent fall in the second quarter. The figures matched the flash estimate.

Greek Jobless Rate Hits New Record High In September

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Greece's unemployment rate increased further and reached a new record high in September as the deepening financial crisis in the debt-stricken economy continued to weaken the labor market, latest data showed Thursday.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 26 percent in September from 25.3 percent in August, which was revised down from 25.4 percent, the Hellenic Statistical Authority said. The latest figure was also significantly higher than 18.9 percent recorded in September 2011.

The unemployment rate among youth, aged between 15 and 24, was 56.4 percent in September, markedly higher than last year's figure of 47.6 percent.

There were around 1.3 million unemployed persons in the country at the end of September, sharply higher by 38 percent compared to last year. Month-on-month, the number of unemployed rose 2.8 percent.

The number of employed persons was around 3.7 million during the month, down 8.1 percent compared to last year. Month-on-month, employment dropped by 0.6 percent.

Overnight US Market

Dow Industrials	12965.60	-59.98	-0.46%	NYSE Comp.	8223.46	-36.98	-0.45%
S&P 500	1409.46	-6.72	-0.47%	Nasdaq 100	2671.84	-6.04	-0.23%
Nasdaq Comp.	3002.20	-8.04	-0.27%	Dow Transports	5061.42	-57.69	-1.13%
Russell 2000	820.80	-1.12	-0.14%	Dow Utilities	451.04	-3.08	-0.68%

Internals were negative on lighter volume. Advances/declines were 2 to 3 on the NYSE and 4 to 5 on the Nasdaq, with up/down volume about 1 to 2 on both exchanges. New highs/lows were 149/11 on the NYSE and 62/34 on the Nasdaq.

Leaders — Disk Drives (+0.99%), REITs (+0.37%), Drugs (+0.27%), Defense (0.00%), HMOs (0.00%), Comp. Tech (-0.03%), Natural Gas (-0.03%), Telecoms (-0.06%)
Laggards — Gold/Silver (-1.97%), Chemicals (-1.85%), Metals (-1.30%), Transport (-0.98%), Airlines (-0.92%), Banks (-0.82%), Paper (-0.81%), Utilities (-0.73%)

Treasury Yields — 6 Month: 0.12%,  2 Year: 0.25%,  5 Year: 0.63%,  10 Year: 1.62%,  30 Year: 2.80%

Energy Prices — Crude oil: $88.98/barrel,  Gasoline: $2.73/gallon,  Natural Gas: $3.60/mmBTU

US Dollar Index — 79.917

Precious Metals — Gold: $1715.80/ounce,  Silver: $33.64/ounce,  Platinum: $1606.00/ounce

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Aid to Spain banks to be disbursed next week

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The 39.5 billion euros ($51 billion) Spain’s euro-zone partners agreed to provide for recapitalizing four nationalized Spanish banks will be disbursed next week, Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker said here Monday.

“The implementation of the program is well on track, meeting all required conditionality steps as enshrined in the memorandum of understanding,” the Luxembourg prime minister said after a meeting of euro-zone officials in Brussels.

“We have also welcomed the decision by the ESM (European Stability Mechanism) board of directors to authorize the first tranche of the program of up to 39.5 billion (euros). The disbursements will be made in mid next week,” Juncker said.

The four nationalized Spanish banks will receive 36.97 billion euros in European aid.

Nearly half of that total – 17.96 billion euros – will go to Bankia, while 5.43 billion euros will be disbursed to Novagalicia, 9.08 billion euros to CatalunyaCaixa and 4.5 billion euros to Banco de Valencia.

Another 2.5 billion euros will fund the participation of Spain’s state-backed FROB bank restructuring fund in the Sareb “bad bank,” recently set up to take on Spanish banks’ toxic real-estate assets.

“Today has been an important day for Spain and for the ESM,” Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said in Brussels.

The Spanish economy remains hampered by the fallout from the collapse of a long-building housing bubble, which left many of its banks saddled with toxic assets.

The Iberian nation’s unemployment rate currently stands at 25.02 percent overall and more than 50 percent among young people. EFE

Japan stocks fall, with car makers mostly lower

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LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Japanese stocks fell in early Tuesday action, taking a cue from losses on Wall Street over weak U.S. manufacturing data and worries over the fiscal cliff. The Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 -0.28% lost 0.5% to trade at 9,406.87, while the Topix surrendered 0.4%. Auto-maker stocks were broadly lower after most reported drops in domestic sales but gains in U.S. sales. Toyota Motor Corp.JP:7203 0.00% TM -0.49% slipped 0.3%, and Nissan Motor Co. JP:7201 -1.49% NSANY +0.26%dropped 1.6%. Mitsubishi Motors Corp. JP:7211 -1.28% MMTOF -1.04% , which saw its November North American sales slip slightly, traded 2.6% lower, but shares of Honda Motor Co. JP:7267 +0.85% HMC -1.92% rose 0.7% after posting its best U.S. sales ever. Tech exporters were mostly lower, with Hitachi Ltd. JP:6501 -1.47% HTHIF 0.00% lower by 1.5%, and camera-maker Nikon Corp. JP:7731 -2.02% NINOF -2.49% falling 1.5%, while Advantest Corp. JP:6857 -3.64% ADTTF +4.34% tumbled 3.4% after Credit Suisse cut its rating to underperform from outperform. Sharp Corp. JP:6753 +1.16% SHCAF -0.50% rose 1.7%, however, after a Nikkei news report that it plans to join Qualcomm Inc. QCOM -0.39%to develop an energy-efficient LCD smartphone panel.

Copper eases off 5-week high on U.S. fiscal cliff concerns, Greece

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Forexpros - Copper futures turned lower during European morning hours on Monday, easing off a five-week high as traders continued to monitor developments surrounding Greece’s debt woes and the fiscal outlook in the U.S.
Copper prices were higher during the Asian trading session following the release of upbeat Chinese manufacturing data.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.645 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.15% on the day.
New York-traded copper prices rose by as much as 0.45% earlier in the day to hit a session high of USD3.667 a pound, the strongest level since October 19.
Markets participants continued to monitor developments surrounding the looming “fiscal cliff” in the U.S., approximately USD600 billion in automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1, unless a divided Congress and the White House can work out a compromise in the four weeks left before the deadline.
House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner spooked investors on Friday after saying there was a stalemate between Republicans and President Barack Obama’s administration.
He added that President Obama’s proposal of USD1.6 trillion in new tax revenue and less than USD400 billion in spending cuts was not “serious.”
There are fears that U.S. lawmakers will repeat the same political divisiveness that led Standard & Poor's to downgrade the U.S.’s AAA rating in August 2011 and tip the country back into a recession.
Meanwhile, in the euro zone, Greece launched a scheme to buy back its debt from private investors, as part of an agreement to unlock a new bailout package worth EUR44 billion.
Euro zone finance ministers were to hold talks in Brussels later in the day to discuss the terms of the new aid deal for Greece, after Germany’s parliament gave it the green light on Friday.
Copper prices rallied to a five-week high earlier in the session after a report from HSBC confirmed that manufacturing activity in China expanded for the first time in more than a year last month.
The final version of China’s HSBC Purchasing Managers Index rose to 50.5 in November from a final reading of 49.5 in October.
The data came after a report from the state-affiliated China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing over the weekend, which showed manufacturing activity improved to a seven-month high of 50.6 in November, up 0.4 point over October.
The upbeat data added to signs of growth recovery in the world’s largest copper consumer.
Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for February delivery added 0.45% to trade at USD1,720.25 a troy ounce, while silver for March delivery rose 1% to trade at USD33.61 a troy ounce.

Crude falls from highs on weak U.S. data

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Forexpros - Crude oil futures eased higher during U.S. afternoon hours Monday after data indicated manufacturing activity in the U.S. contracted for the first time in three months in November.
Sentiment remained supported after Greece announced the details of a debt buyback scheme, while encouraging Chinese data was also in focus.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in January traded at USD88.98 a barrel during U.S. afternoon trade, up 0.04% on the session.
Pushing oil off its highs,  the Institute for Supply Management said in a report that its index of U.S. purchasing managers fell to 49.5 in November from a reading of 51.7 in October. 
Analysts had expected the ISM index of purchasing managers to decline to 51.3 in November.
Meanwhile, a report from HSBC released earlier confirmed that manufacturing activity in China expanded for the first time in more than a year last month.
The final version of China’s HSBC Purchasing Managers Index rose to 50.5 in November from a final reading of 49.5 in October.
The data came after a report from the state-affiliated China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing over the weekend, which showed manufacturing activity improved to a seven-month high of 50.6 in November, up 0.4 point over October.
The U.S. and China are the world’s two largest oil consuming nations and manufacturing numbers are used as indicators for fuel demand growth.
Appetite for riskier assets found additional support after Greece launched a scheme to buy back its debt from private investors, as part of an agreement to unlock a new bailout package worth EUR44 billion.
Euro zone finance ministers were to hold talks in Brussels later in the day to discuss the terms of the new Greek aid deal, after Germany’s parliament gave it the green light on Friday. The ministers were also to discuss details of a EUR10 billion bailout for Cyprus.
Weakness in the dollar also contributed to oil’s strength. The euro hit a six-week high against the greenback, while the dollar index was down 0.35% to trade at 79.95, the weakest level since November 1.
Oil prices typically strengthen when the U.S. currency weakens as the dollar-priced commodity becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies.
But gains were limited as investors remained concerned over the looming fiscal cliff in the U.S., approximately USD600 billion in automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1, unless a divided Congress and the White House can work out a compromise in the four weeks left before the deadline.
House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner spooked investors on Friday after saying there was a stalemate between Republicans and President Barack Obama’s administration. 
He added that President Obama’s proposal of USD1.6 trillion in new tax revenue and less than USD400 billion in spending cuts was not “serious.”
There are fears that U.S. lawmakers will repeat the same political divisiveness that led Standard & Poor's to downgrade the U.S.’s AAA rating in August 2011 and tip the country back into a recession.
Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for January delivery added 0.4% to trade at USD111.62 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD21.89 a barrel.

Calendar 04-12-12’

 

Live Economic Calendar Powered by Forexpros - The Leading Financial Portal

 

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Wall Street turns bearish into close on weak PMI numbers

Forexpros - U.S. stocks closed lower Monday, as weak PMI numbers pressured shares, while better-than-expected data from China and positive comments from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on the "fiscal cliff" supported sentiment. 
At the close of  U.S. trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.46%%, the S&P 500 index dropped 0.47%, while the Nasdaq Composite index gave back 0.27%. 
Pressuring stocks lower, manufacturing activity in the U.S. deteriorated unexpectedly in November, contracting for the first time in three months, industry data showed on Monday. 
In a report, the Institute for Supply Management said its index of purchasing managers fell to 49.5 in November from a reading of 51.7 in October. 
Analysts had expected the ISM index of purchasing managers to decline to 51.3 in November.
On the index, a reading above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.
Sentiment strengthened after final data showed that China’s HSBC purchasing managers’ index came in at 50.5 in November from 49.5 in October, indicating that economic activity is picking up. 
On Sunday, Timothy Geithner said that the Republicans would ultimately agree to raise tax rates on the rich to avert a fiscal crisis. 
Markets have been jittery amid negotiations between Democrats and Republicans to avoid a set of spending cuts and tax increases due to come into effect on January 1 if U.S. lawmakers cannot reach an agreement on reducing the budget deficit. 
News Corp surged 1.06% amid reports it is preparing to name Robert Thomson, a close confidant of Chairman and CEO Rupert Murdoch, to lead its new publishing company by the end of next week. 
Financial stocks were also broadly higher, as shares in JP Morgan added 0.24% and Citigroup rose 0.20%, while Bank of America and Goldman Sachs climbed 0.71% and 1.23% respectively. 
Separately, Bank of America was said to be holding off on plans for new checking-account fees that could have affected some 10 million customers by year's end, avoiding a possible repeat of last year's protests over consumer banking fees. 
Airline companies were also in focus, after Singapore Airlines said it was in talks with interested parties, including Delta Airlines, to sell its 49% stake in British carrier Virgin Atlantic. The news sent shares in Delta Airlines down 0.50% 
Boeing added to losses, falling 0.31%, after the company and the union that represents its 23,000 engineers tentatively agreed to resume labor talks on Tuesday, after their negotiations on a new contract ended abruptly on Thursday. 
Elsewhere, Martin Marietta Materials dipped 0.03%, as it was expected to make a friendly offer to buy rival Vulcan Materials, rather than attempt another hostile takeover, according to the Wall Street Journal. 
At the close of European trade, the EURO STOXX 50 added 0.28%, France’s CAC 40  eased higher by 0.26%, while Germany’s DAX 30 climbed 0.40%. 
Investors are awaiting the Canadian interest rate decision and the Australian GDP on Tuesday.

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MCX ALERT

All are requested to Close before at 4.30 PM contract of ALUMINI, ALUMINUM , COTTON, CPO, GOLDGUINEA, GOLDPETAL, GOLDPTLDEL, IRONORE, LEAD, LEADMINI, MENTHAOIL, NICKEL, NICKELM, SILVER1000, ZINC, ZINCMINI Expiry Contact on 30st NOV 2012. (Compulsory Delivery Contract of COTTON, CPO, GOLDGUINEA, GOLDPETAL, SILVER1000, MENTHAOIL) Else will be assigned to delivery with penalty.

Asian shares firm as investors square positions

European shares will likely pause, with financial spreadbetters predicting London's FTSE 100 .FTSE, Paris's CAC-40 .FCHI and Frankfurt's DAX.GDAXI will open down as much as 0.3 percent. A 0.2 percent drop in U.S. stock futures also hinted at a weaker Wall Street open. .L.EU.N

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outsid

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e Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.6 percent to its highest since March 1, and was on course for a monthly gain of 2.1 percent.

"It just seems like one of those risk-on days where investors just pile onto stocks that they think will give them the most value," said Stan Shamu, market strategist at IG Markets.

Australian shares .AXJO added 0.6 percent to a fresh three-week high, aided by shares in mining and banks on firmer metals prices and a higher finish on Wall Street.

Shanghai shares .SSEC were up 0.9 percent and set for their first gain this week after slumping to their lowest in nearly four years earlier in the week, while Hong Kong .HSIshares rose 0.7 percent. Indian shares .BSESN moved up 0.8 percent to their highest in 19 months.

Amid unclear prospects for the U.S. budget talks and the apparently abating risk of an imminent Greece bankruptcy, investors sought trade incentives from data out of Asian countries on Friday and Saturday that could offer signals for the likely direction of global economic growth.

India's economy grew at a lower-than-expected annual 5.3 percent in the quarter ending in September, against analysts' forecast of 5.4 percent. Asia's third largest economy is still growing faster than many other major economies, but it has slowed from 6.5 percent in the 2011/12 fiscal year.

The data followed mixed reports from Japan, the world's third-largest economy, earlier in the day.

Japanese industrial output unexpectedly rose 1.8 percent in October, the first increase in four months, suggesting the negative impact of the global slowdown and a diplomatic row with China may have run its course.

But Japanese manufacturing activity contracted in November at the fastest pace in 19 months, according to a survey indicating it was hurt by falling exports, weak domestic demand and declining capital expenditure.

In South Korea, another big export-reliant economy, industrial output grew for a second month in a row in October, backing expectations for a recovery in the current quarter.

On Saturday, China will release the official manufacturing PMI for November, which is likely to show factory activity expanding at its fastest pace in seven months.

Japan's Nikkei stock average .N225 rose 0.5 percent to a seven-month closing high, posting its best month since February with a 5.8 percent gain. .T

Flows related to end-month demand drove the euro and the dollar higher against the yen. The dollar rose 0.3 percent to 82.36 yen, moving towards the 7-1/2-month high of 82.84 yen hit last week, while the euro jumped 0.6 percent to 107.12 yen, after hitting a seven-month high of 107.29 earlier.

"The market is subject to mood swings by investors who pay close attention to small developments in the U.S. budget talks, but as long as the yen does not rise far from current levels, we may see a slow but steady rise in the market," said Takuya Takahashi, an analyst at Daiwa Securities.

FISCAL SWINGS

Financial markets swung around on Thursday after comments by U.S. legislators dampened optimism that an agreement would be reached to avoid a series of tax hikes and spending cuts which could put the world's biggest economy back into recession.

The Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, John Boehner, indicated no substantive progress over the last two weeks in talks to reach a budget deal, less than 24 hours after he said he was "optimistic" about reaching a pact.

Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid struck back, saying later his party was still waiting for a reasonable proposal from the Republicans.

"We are trading day-to-day based on the running drama over the fiscal cliff, and the market doesn't look very optimistic at the moment," said Carl Larry, a derivatives broker with Atlas Commodities in Houston.

London copper rose 0.3 percent to $7,924 a metric ton (1.1023 tons) and spot gold inched up 0.3 percent to $1,730.36 an ounce, but prices were on track for their biggest weekly drop since the start of November with the U.S. fiscal talks hurting sentiment.

Oil fell, with U.S. crude futures down 0.3 percent to $87.81 a barrel and Brent easing 0.1 percent to $110.67.

The euro was up 0.2 percent to $1.3004, below $1.3015 on Thursday, its highest level since October 31.

The euro has been supported after global lenders earlier in the week agreed to unblock more aid to debt-stricken Greece, pushing down Italy's 10-year bond yield to its lowest in two years at an auction on Thursday.

Reflecting a general caution despite rising equities, Asian credit markets were lackluster, keeping the spreads on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment-grade index little changed.

(Additional reporting by Thuy Ong in Sydney, Ayai Tomisawa in Tokyo and Luke Pachymuthu in Singapore; Editing by Eric Meijer and Richard Borsuk)

Major datas 30-11-2012

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Sensex rises after in-line GDP

(Reuters) - The rupee rose marginally, while stocks were broadly unchanged after the September quarter economic growth came in line with market estimates.

The Sensex extended gains to 0.5 percent from 0.3 percent before the data release.

The rupee was at 54.54/56 to the dollar against 54.61/64 previously.

The 10-year bond yield was at 8.17 percent, unchanged after the data. It was down 4 basis points after the central bank announced open market operations.

India's economy grew at a lower-than-expected 5.3 percent in the quarter ending in September, against analysts' forecast of 5.4 percent, government data showed on Friday.

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Q2 GDP

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2012-13, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices, alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP.

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MAJOR DATAS TODAY

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MARKET EYE-BSE above 19,000; Goldman Sachs upgrades Indian stocks

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* The BSE index rises 0.83 percent, crossing 19,000
points for the first time since Oct. 5, while the NSE index
 gains 0.77 percent. 
* Gains track Asian shares that hit three-week highs on Thursday
as sentiment improved after a senior U.S. lawmaker said he was
"optimistic" on reaching a budget deal before the end of the
year to avoid a fiscal crisis. 
* Traders say Moody's stable outlook on India has eased
potential ratings downgrade worries from S&P and Fitch in the
near term.  
* On Thursday Goldman Sachs upgraded Indian stocks to
'overweight' from 'market-weight', citing growth recovery and
inflation moderation ahead. The investment bank pegged December
2013 Nifty target at 6,600 points. 
* Leading the gains were mortgage lender HDFC, up 2.4
percent; ICICI Bank gains 1.4 percent while Tata
Motors is up 3.17 percent.

Gold sees mild recovery after big sell-off

Gold prices staged a mild rebound Thursday in Asia on relief buying after they were slammed overnight over a host of concerns, disregarding for the moment optimism over the U.S. fiscal-cliff talks that boosted other risk assets.

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The mild recovery followed a convergence of technical selling, deflationary concerns and U.S. dollar strength that sank December futures by $25.80 during Wednesday’s regular session on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract had slumped as much as $36.80 at one point.

But analysts differed on the outlook for gold prices.

“The sell-off has shaken out many weaker buyers who will now be looking to sell the rallies rather than buy the dips,” said Fawad Razaqzada, a technical analyst at GFT Markets.

“We believe that such significant liquidation is unlikely to be repeated, and that gold prices will tend to stabilize above $1,700 [an ounce],” said James Steel, an analyst at HSBC Securities.

Gold’s most actively traded futures contract, meant for delivery in February GCG3 +0.20%, also climbed 0.3% to $1,723.20, while spot prices gained $1 to $1,720.80.

The advance came as the ICE dollar index DXY -0.04% , a gauge of the greenback’s moves against a basket of six other major currencies, was little changed at 80.268, compared with 80.262 in North American trade late Wednesday.

Gold investors also appeared to shrug off U.S. President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner’s optimism that lawmakers would reach an agreement to avert the fiscal cliff.

Uncertainty related to the cliff — a reference to the possibility that $600 billion worth of tax increases and spending cuts will kick in from January unless politicians reach an agreement — has tended to lure investors to gold’s safe-haven appeal in the recent past. A stronger dollar also usually hurts gold prices.

Among other metals, December futures for silver SIZ2 -0.01%  and copper HGZ2 +0.28% rose 0.2% to $33.74 an ounce and 0.1% to $3.53 a pound, respectively.

Palladium futures PAZ2 -0.27%  for delivery in the same month slipped 0.2% to $672 an ounce.

January platinum futures PLF3 -0.07%  lost 0.2% to $1,608.60 an ounce.

New Home Sales in US

New Home Sales measures the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month. This report tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of Existing Home Sales because the reports are tightly correlated.

 

ACTUAL  368 K

FORECAST 390 K

PREVIOUS 389 K

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Crude oil made new one-week low

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Crude oil futures declined during European morning hours on Wednesday, trading near the lowest level in a week as a lack of progress in negotiations for a deal to avoid a U.S. budget crisis before a January deadline weighed on appetite for riskier assets.
Oil traders were focusing on closely-watched weekly supply data on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products from the U.S. Energy Information Administration later in the day.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in January traded at USD86.95 a barrel during European morning trade, down 0.25% on the day.
New York-traded oil prices fell by as much as 0.3% earlier in the day to hit a session low of USD86.92 a barrel.
Markets participants continued to monitor developments surrounding the looming “fiscal cliff” in the U.S., approximately USD600 billion in automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid spooked investors Tuesday after saying that there had been “little progress” made toward reaching a deal by the end of the year.
There are fears the U.S. economy will fall back into a recession, unless a divided Congress and the White House can work out a compromise in the five weeks left before the January 1 deadline.
Doubts over the Greek debt deal also weighed on sentiment. Greece’s constitutional lenders reached an agreement Tuesday to reduce Greece’s debt-reduction target by EUR40 billion to 124% of gross domestic product by 2020.
But the lack of detail on how Greece will implement reforms needed to meet its new debt targets dented investor confidence.
The news prompted investors to shun riskier assets, such as stocks and commodities, and flock to traditional safe haven assets like the U.S. dollar.
The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.1% to trade at 80.47.
A stronger dollar makes U.S. commodities more expensive for importers holding other currencies.
Oil traders now looked ahead to weekly data from the U.S. government on oil supplies later in the day to gauge the strength of demand from the world’s largest oil consumer.
The report was expected to show that U.S. crude oil stockpiles increased by 0.3 million barrels last week, while gasoline inventories were forecast to rise by 0.85 million barrels.
After markets closed Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said that U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.96 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks increased 2.28 million barrels.
The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil consuming country, responsible for almost 22% of global oil demand.
Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for January delivery shed 0.3% to trade at USD109.58 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD22.63 a barrel.

Dollar pushes higher vs. rivals ahead of U.S. data

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The U.S. dollar was pushed higher against the other major currencies on Wednesday, ahead of the release of U.S. economic data, as concerns over Greece's ability to handle its new debt target and U.S. fiscal policy decisions continued to dominate.
During European afternoon trade, the dollar was higher against the euro, with EUR/USD shedding 0.42% to 1.2889.
Although international lenders agreed on a plan to cut Greek debt, which will allow the country to secure more financial aid and avoid a default, market scepticism grew over a lack of detail on how Athens will implement the reforms needed to meet its new targets.
Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor developments surrounding the looming “fiscal cliff” in the U.S., approximately USD600 billion in automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1.
Sentiment weakened on Tuesday after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he was frustrated by the lack of progress in talks over the U.S. budget impasse in Washington.

A Trader !!!

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The Perfect Trader is patient with entries and exits, they are focused on what works not personal opinions. They do not worry about missed trades, the Perfect Trader does not boast while winning and does not become depressed while losing. They are never too proud to admit when they are wrong and exit their trade.  They do not give unsolicited advice to other traders because they know everyone trades their own system and their own plan.  They are not angered by the market action with losses because they take full responsibility for all their trades. They keep a detailed record of all their trades to learn from winners and losers.  They love trading and never stop learning and getting better. The Perfect Trader always protects their capital through risk management, always trusts in their methods, always has faith in themselves and method,  and always perseveres.

RECESSION CONTINUES IN GREECE

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Greece will enter its seventh year of recession in 2014 before the country’s economy begins to rebound in 2015, according to estimates in a report issued on Tuesday by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which also urges support for the social groups that have been hit hardest by the crisis.

While the European Union projects a return to growth for Greece in 2014, the OECD expects the country’s economy to shrink in 2014 by 1.3 percent, “due mostly to fiscal retrenchment,” revising its earlier estimate for growth of 0.2 percent. It expects a 4.5 percent contraction in GDP next year.

“If growth proves lower than assumed in the government’s fiscal plans, then the automatic stabilizers should be allowed to operate, even if this means missing the set targets,” the report states. “The most vulnerable strata will have to be protected from any further social cuts,” it adds.

The OECD sees public debt rising to 189 percent of GDP next year and to 195 percent in 2014 unless additional debt reduction measures are taken, from 177 percent this year. The report was drafted before the Eurogroup decision on Monday that eased Greece’s loan terms.

The budget deficit is expected to end up at 6.9 percent this year and drop to 4.6 percent in two years’ time. The current account deficit is seen dropping to 2.3 percent in 2014 from 5.5 percent this year, while exports are expected to grow by 6.1 percent by 2014 and imports to shrink by 3.2 percent.

The report adds that unemployment will continue to break one record after another and acknowledges that the economy suffered additional pressures this year owing to the tough but absolutely necessary fiscal adjustment process that has led to a reduction of salaries, trust and external demand.

The rebound is connected with the strengthening of international commerce, the restoration of confidence in Greece and the recovery of the country’s competitiveness. The OECD also sees a key role in the implementation of the structural measures that include the aggressive combating of tax evasion, an improvement in the efficiency of public administration, a lifting of market barriers and the opening up of competition.

Important Datas today

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Good China data, untraded shares slam market

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HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Good Chinese economic data seem to lead to bad Chinese stock performance lately, as investors appear more worried the government will hold back on stimulus, or dump shares on the market.

Yet again, the Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 -0.89%  headed to fresh multiyear lows Wednesday, trading 0.8% lower in the early afternoon after ending the morning at its lowest intraday level since January 2009.

Wednesday’s weakness follows Tuesday’s upbeat data showing profits at large industrial companies jumped 20.5% in October from a year earlier, as investors worried the numbers made it less likely that Beijing would offer credit-stimulus measures to support the economy in the immediate future.

Uwe Parpart, chief strategist at Reorient Financial in Hong Kong, said another big factor weighing on the market included concerns that untraded shares in state-owned corporations could soon be released to the public.

“It is the equivalent of a monetary overhang that could, at any given time, be released into the market, so it’s like a Damocles sword hanging,” he said.

Unlikely most other major stock markets, retail investors dominate in China in terms of their holdings in actively traded shares, while institutional investors are less prominent.

Parpart said this fact means China’s domestic market is more prone to crowd psychology and thus more vulnerable to selling pressure in spite of convincing data showing conditions are stabilizing.

Parpart wasn’t convinced the crowd was right, however, saying the Shanghai market was “a very compelling buying opportunity right now,” despite its downward trajectory.

U.S. declines to name China currency manipulator

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By Anna Yukhananov

WASHINGTON | Wed Nov 28, 2012 6:45am IST

(Reuters) - The Obama administration said on Tuesday that China's currency remained "significantly undervalued," but stopped short of labeling the world's second-biggest economy a currency manipulator.

Although Beijing controls the pace at which the yuan can rise, the U.S. Treasury said in a congressionally mandated semi-annual report that China did not meet the legal requirements to be deemed a currency manipulator.

The label is largely symbolic, but would require Washington to open discussions with Beijing on adjusting the yuan's value.

It has been 18 years since the U.S. Treasury has designated any country a manipulator. China was labeled a manipulator between 1992 and 1994.

The latest report reflected both the administration's desire to maintain good relations with its top creditor and an attempt to keep up pressure for changes in China that could benefit the U.S. economy and mollify domestic critics.

The report noted that the yuan, also known as the renminbi, had risen 12.6 percent against the U.S. dollar in inflation-adjusted terms since June 2010. An official said it was up 9.7 percent on a nominal basis through Tuesday, when it closed at a record high.

The Treasury also said China had "substantially" reduced its intervention in foreign exchange markets since the third quarter of 2011 and had loosened capital controls.

"In light of these developments, Treasury has concluded that the standards ... have not been met with respect to China," it said. "Nonetheless, the available evidence suggests the renminbi remains significantly undervalued," the report added, echoing the Treasury's last assessment in May.

Ted Truman, a Treasury official under former President Bill Clinton, said it was important to keep a watchful eye on China's currency policy.

"We have the aftermath of 10 years of misbehavior," said Truman, who is now with the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "It would probably be unwise and too soon to declare victory."

During the U.S. presidential campaign, Republican candidate Mitt Romney pledged to label China a manipulator on his first day in office to show he would be tougher on the chief U.S. economic competitor than President Barack Obama.

Many U.S. businesses and lawmakers complain that Beijing keeps the value of its currency artificially low to gain an advantage in trade at the expense of American jobs.

But an international consensus is growing that the yuan is closing in on its fair value after about a decade at an artificially weak level. The International Monetary Fund softened its language on the yuan in July.

YUAN AT RECORD HIGH

Signs of a recovery in the Chinese economy and a new round of quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve have led traders to push the yuan higher.

But China's central bank has kept a lid on the move. The central bank allows the yuan to rise or fall by only 1 percent from whatever rate it sets each day.

Charles Schumer, the No. 3 Democrat in the U.S. Senate and a longtime critic of China's yuan policy, said the Treasury passed up an opportunity to level the trade playing field.

"It's time for the Obama administration to rip off the band-aid, and force China to play by the same rules as all other countries," the New York senator said in a statement.

But the U.S.-China Business Council, which represents U.S. companies that do business with China, applauded the decision.

"The exchange rate has little to do with the U.S. trade balance or employment," council President John Frisbie said. "We need to move on to more important issues with China, such as removing market access barriers and improving intellectual property protection."

The Treasury said further appreciation of the yuan would help China balance its economy toward consumption by giving households greater purchasing power.

It called on China to reduce its "exceptionally high" foreign exchange reserves and publish data about its intervention in currency markets.

The Obama administration also used the currency report to keep pressure on South Korea to limit its foreign exchange intervention.

South Korea says it intervenes to smooth the volatility of its won currency, but it has gone into the market throughout 2012, the Treasury report said. In July, the IMF said the won was undervalued by up to 10 percent.

"We will continue to press the Korean authorities to limit their foreign exchange interventions to the exceptional circumstances of disorderly market conditions," the report said.

(Reporting by Anna Yukhananov, additional reporting by Doug Palmer and Lesley Wroughton; Editing by James Dalgleish, Dan Grebler and Andre Grenon)

U.S. stocks fall on fears debt talks have stalled

By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch

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NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks dropped on Tuesday after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said little progress has been made in talks aimed at averting the so-called fiscal cliff.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.69%  declined 89.24 points, or 0.7%, to end at 12,878.13, with 23 of its 30 components in negative territory. Hewlett-Packard Co.HPQ -2.98%  was the top decliner in the Dow, with its shares slumping 3%. See: Former Autonomy CEO challenges H-P.

“The dominant item on the market’s mind continues to be the fiscal cliff,” Brad Sorensen, director of market and sector analysis at the Charles Schwab Center for Financial Research, said of negotiations on Capitol Hill.

The market’s intensified decline came after Sen. Reid, the Nevada Democrat, expressed disappointment to reporters about the negotiations to avert billions in automatic spending cuts and tax hikes set to start in the new year. See: Senate fiscal-cliff bickering spooks market.

Reid also said he agrees with President Barack Obama that Social Security should not be part of a fiscal-cliff deal.

“The staffers are doing the legwork, while their bosses are trying to find the cameras,” Art Hogan, market strategist at Lazard Capital Markets, said of legislative efforts to reach a deficit-cutting deal.

“The good news is, we’ll build the case for equities while waiting for Washington to have a crisis of common sense,” he said.

The S&P 500 index SPX -0.52%  shed 7.35 points, or 0.5%, to close at 1,398.94, with utilities the strongest performing sector and energy and financials the worst among the 10 major industry groups.

The Nasdaq Composite index COMP -0.30%  dropped 8.99 points, or 0.3%, to end at 2,967.79, snapping a six-session winning streak.

Around 689 million shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Composite volume topped 3.3 billion.

Greece loan approved

In Europe, finance ministers reduced the rates on loans granted in the first financial rescue of Greece in mid-2010, while approving the next loan installment for the nation in December.

The step did little, however, for the euroEURUSD -0.0866%  , which fell against other currencies, including the U.S. dollarDXY +0.02%  .

The euro’s decline “likely reflects selling on the fact, with an agreement long expected and the euro-zone economic outlook still underwhelming,” wrote Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo Bank.

Asia stocks decline as fiscal-cliff worries mount

By Sarah Turner, MarketWatch

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SYDNEY (MarketWatch) — Asia stocks slipped on Wednesday, with the health of the U.S. economy back on the agenda as investors looked toward January’s looming tax hikes and spending cuts.

The Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 -0.79%  lost 0.8% in Tokyo trading, backing away from a seven-month high, while South Korea’s Kospi KR:SEU -0.83%  fell 0.9% in Seoul, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index AU:XJO -0.29%  declined 0.5% in Sydney.

The Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.84%  fell 0.7% in Hong Kong, while the Shanghai Composite index CN:000001 -0.69% lost 0.4% after touching a four-year low in the previous session.

Investors in Chinese shares were concerned about the outlook for corporate profits. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Tuesday in the latest edition of its twice-yearly economic outlook that “inventory levels at Chinese companies have been rising, bringing the risk of destocking if falling profitability puts pressure on companies to raise cash.”

OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría also warned that “the world economy is far from being out of the woods” and that “the U.S. ‘fiscal cliff,’ if it materializes, could tip an already weak economy into recession, while failure to solve the euro-area crisis could lead to a major financial shock and global downturn.” Read: OECD: Fiscal-cliff failure could trigger recession

U.S. stocks ended with losses Tuesday amid fresh concerns about the possibility of more than $600 billion of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts in January triggering weakness in the U.S. economy, as politicians continue to speak out about the issue.Read: U.S. stocks fall on fears debt talks have stalled

Tuesday saw Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid say that there had been “little progress” made toward reaching a deal by the end of the year. See full coverage of the upcoming "fiscal cliff".

The same concerns also hit the foreign-exchange market. BNP Paribas strategist Vassili Serebriako said that “clearly, as long as fiscal-cliff uncertainty is not resolved, the U.S. dollar is likely to see bouts of safe-haven demand.”

The ICE dollar index DXY +0.01% built on Tuesday strength during Asian trading hours Wednesday, reaching 80.405, from 80.344 in late North American trading. Read: Dollar gains after U.S. data, Greek deal

Gold futures, on the other hand, extended losses from Tuesday as the precious metal, along with other dollar-denominated commodities, reacted to the dollar’s strength. Read: Gold settles lower for a second straight session

Amid the weakness for commodity futures, energy firms fell in Hong Kong, with Cnooc Ltd. HK:883 -2.07% CEO -1.17%  down 2.1% and PetroChina Co. HK:857 -1.75% PTR +0.17% lower by 1.4%.

Aluminium Corp. of China Ltd. ACH -1.30% HK:2600 -1.81% CN:601600 -0.64%  declined by 1.5% in Hong Kong and by 0.4% in Shanghai, while Wuhan Iron & Steel Co.CN:600005 -4.69%  lost 2% in mainland Chinese trading, and Angang Steel Co.CN:000898 -2.36% fell 1.8% in Shenzhen.

Metal firms also fell in Australia, with miner Rio Tinto Ltd. AU:RIO -1.89% RIO -1.93%  down 2.1%, and rival BHP Billiton Ltd. AU:BHP -0.88% BHP -0.80%  lower by 1.1%.

Mining services firm NRW Holdings Ltd. AU:NWH -17.22% tumbled 15.3% after flagging an expected fiscal-year revenue and margin reduction at its mining division.

Over in Tokyo, Japanese electronics firm Canon Inc. JP:7751 -2.37% CAJ -0.60%  lost 2% after a Nikkei report that it is seeking to drastically shrink its consolidated inventory by the end of the year after its stocks hit a high in September not seen since 2008.

Fujitsu Ltd. JP:6702 -1.97% FJTSY 0.00%  traded down 1.6% after a separate Nikkei report that it will allocate some 100 billion yen ($1.2 billion) to add needed capital to a pension fund at its U.K. unit.

Exporters were generally weak in Japanese trading Wednesday, as the yen remained in a tight range against the dollar and euro.

Major exporters had led much of the gains for the Japanese index over the past days, but Wednesday morning saw Pioneer Corp. JP:6773 -5.91% PNCOF -35.19%  retreat 5.9%, while car maker Mazda Motor Corp. JP:7261 -2.34% MZDAF +7.45%  lost 2.3%.

Sony Corp. JP:6758 -1.35% SNE -1.62%  fell 1.1% amid a Reuters report that investment banks had approached the firm over the possible sale of its battery-making business.

In Seoul, technology firms also saw losses, with LG Electronics Inc. KR:066570 -2.60% LGEIY 0.00%  down 2% and SK Hynix Inc. KR:000660 -0.39% HXSCL 0.00%  down 1.8%.

SEC Charges Four India-Based Brokerage Firms with Violating U.S. Registration Requirements

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The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged four financial services firms based in India for providing brokerage services to institutional investors in the United States without being registered with the SEC as required under the federal securities laws.
The four firms – Ambit Capital Private Limited, Edelweiss Financial Services Limited, JM Financial Institutional Securities Private Limited, and Motilal Oswal Securities Limited – agreed to pay more than $1.8 million combined to settle the SEC’s charges.

Hollande threatens ‘nationalisation’ of French Mittal plant

President Francois Hollande said Tuesday that nationalising ArcelorMittal’s plant in northeastern France would be on the table in talks later with the steel giant’s chief Lakshmi Mittal.
“The nationalisation is part of the subjects of the discussion,” Hollande told a joint press conference with Belgian Prime Minister Elio Di Rupo, adding that this would apply only to the Florange plant and “in no way the entire group”.
“I will meet in a few minutes with Mr. Mittal to see what answer he can give us in respect to this requirement for us to keep the site as it is today,” Hollande said.
“I will give you the answer when I have myself obtained it, but our will is to ensure that the entire site is sustainable,” he said.
France has threatened to temporarily nationalise the Florange plant, where Mittal has given the government until Saturday to find a buyer for two shuttered blast furnaces.
The government says it has two offers, but only for the entire Florange site including other facilities which Mittal wants to retain and keep operating.
Mittal has refused to sell the full operation and warned that nationalisation of the Florange facilities would threaten the viability of all of its activities across France, where it employs 20,000 people.

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Rupee snaps five-day losing streak; banks sell dollars

By Swati Bhat
MUMBAI | Tue Nov 27, 2012 9:41pm IST
(Reuters) - The rupee snapped a five-day losing streak on Tuesday as custodian banks sold dollars on the back of sharp gains in the domestic share market, but persistent dollar demand from oil refiners to meet month-end requirements capped the gains.
Traders are also hopeful the government would succeed in pushing through key reforms in the winter session, despite the parliament having been adjourned for a fourth day.
Moody's also reiterated that its outlook on India's sovereign rating of Baa3 remains stable, citing the country's high savings and investment rates.
"The way the rupee had been moving for the past few days it appeared that we might have hit 56 today itself, but it received some respite from gains in stocks and the euro," said Paresh Nayar, head of fixed income and forex trading at First Rand Bank.
"There seem to have been good custodian flows today. Demand from oilers was persistent since the last few days. Trade deficit numbers will be crucial now. Market could see a wide and choppy range of 54.30 and 56.20 in the next few days," Nayar added.
The Sensex posted its biggest daily gain in more than two months as investor sentiment turned positive on growing hopes the government would push through reforms to stimulate growth and avoid a ratings downgrade.
The partially convertible rupee closed at 55.45/46 per dollar up 0.5 percent versus its previous close of 55.73/74 on Monday.
Foreign fund flows into and out of the share market have a huge influence on the rupee's fortunes. Foreign funds have bought shares worth more than $19 billion so far in 2012 but the rupee remains down about 4.3 percent.
Traders said oil refiners, the biggest buyers of dollars in the domestic currency market have been buying continuously over the last few days to meet their month-end import commitments, hurting the rupee.
Lack of dollar inflows had also exaggerated the fall due to oil demand, traders said. The central bank is expected to step in and sell dollars to prevent the rupee from slipping below 56, traders said.
Euro's gains versus the dollar also aided the rupee. The euro bounced to a one-month high against the dollar on Tuesday after international lenders agreed a new debt target for Greece, but eased back after a Fed policymaker's comments boosted the U.S. currency.
In the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, the one-month contract was at 55.72 while the three-month was at 56.30.
In the currency futures market, the most-traded near-term dollar/rupee contracts on the National Stock Exchange, the MCX-SX and the United Stock Exchange all closed at around 55.7250 with a total traded volume at around $5.97 billion.
(Editing by Anand Basu)

Wall Street down as "fiscal cliff" scares investors away

By Angela Moon
NEW YORK | Tue Nov 27, 2012 10:25pm IST
(Reuters) - Stocks fell on Tuesday as worries over the impact of "fiscal cliff" on the economy overshadowed progress in easing Greece's debt burden and a slew of positive U.S. economic data.
A deal in Europe to release emergency aid to debt-laden Greece gave a brief, early lift to stocks, but the news was not enough to sustain the gains as investors confronted the looming "fiscal cliff" at home.
As Democrats and Republicans prepared to resume efforts to bridge their sharp differences over taming the federal debt this week in Washington, the market resumed its cautious mode.
"It's like there is nothing else but the fiscal cliff now. It is too big of an issue both economically and politically for investors to just brush off," said Jack DeGan, chief investment officer at Harbor Advisory Corp in Portsmouth, New Hampshire.
The market's worry is whether Congress and the White House can agree on ways to avoid some $600 billion in automatic spending cuts and tax increases that are due to kick early next year. Some fear dramatic fiscal restraint could send the economy into recession.
"It's hard for markets to move on fundamentals now. Even if they do, they quickly come back to being cautious. Investors may buy on small dips but they don't stay in that position for long," DeGan said.
Market reaction was muted to data that showed Americans' confidence in November hit the highest level in more than four years and home prices in September rose for an eighth straight month.
In addition, a gauge of planned U.S. business spending increased by the most in five months in October, data on durable goods orders showed.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 37.35 points, or 0.29 percent, at 12,930.02. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 2.75 points, or 0.20 percent, at 1,403.54. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 4.21 points, or 0.14 percent, at 2,972.58.
As of Monday's close, the S&P 500 was holding above the 1,400, the level it reclaimed last week. But volume continued to be weak as traders awaited any progress to avert the fiscal restraint. Last week, the S&P 500 advanced nearly 4 percent.
Among individual stocks, Corning Inc (GLW.N) shares rose 6.3 percent to $12.07 after the specialty glass maker said it expects full-year sales of its Gorilla glass, used in smartphones and tablets, to approach $1 billion.
McMoRan Exploration Co (MMR.N) shares tumbled 22 percent to $7.55 after the oil and gas explorer said on Monday that it could not achieve a measurable flow test at its key Davy Jones No. 1 well in the Gulf of Mexico.
(Reporting By Angela Moon; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio and Kenneth Barry)

Gazans say "Thank you Iran" after Israel conflagration

By Nidal al-Mughrabi
GAZA | Tue Nov 27, 2012 10:22pm IST
(Reuters) - Gazans offered very public thanks to Iran on Tuesday for helping them in this month's fight against Israel, when Iranian-made missiles were fired out of the Palestinian enclave towards Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
"Thank you Iran", said large billboards on three major road junctions in the Gaza Strip - the first time there has been such public acknowledgement of Iran's role in the arming of Islamic militants in the tiny territory.
The message was written in Arabic, English, Hebrew and Farsi. The posters also depicted the Iranian Fajr 5 rockets that were used for the first time to target Israel's two largest population centres. No one was injured in the attacks.
The billboards were not signed, but a senior official with the militant group Islamic Jihad, Khader Habib, said it was only natural to show gratitude for Iran's role in the conflict.
"Iranian rockets struck at Tel Aviv. They reached out to Jerusalem. Therefore it was our duty to thank those who helped our people," he told Reuters.
"We have distinctive, good relations with Iran and such a relationship will continue as long as Iran supports the Palestinian people and backs up the resistance," he added.
Israel launched an air offensive on November 14 with the stated aim of stopping Gaza militants from firing rockets at its southern towns and cities.
About 170 Palestinians, more than half of them civilians, died in the fighting that ended in a ceasefire last Wednesday. Six Israelis were also killed, four of them civilians.
Israel has always asserted that arch-foe Tehran supplied Gaza with weapons, but until the latest conflict both Iran and Gaza's dominant Islamist group Hamas had side-stepped the issue, acknowledging only financial backing and warm political ties.
During the eight-day conflagration, the Iranian speaker of parliament, Ali Larijani, said Iran was "honoured" to have provided Gaza with military aid. Following the ceasefire, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal thanked Iran for arms and funding.
The public statements appeared aimed at dispelling speculation that the mainly Sunni Muslim Gaza Strip was shutting the door on Shi'ite Iran and turning instead to neighbouring Egypt for support and protection.
Israeli analyst Meir Javedanfar said he thought the Iranians would regret telling the world they supplied Hamas with arms.
"Now that such high-ranking officials openly admit to having supplied weapons to groups in Gaza, the job of isolating Iran will be even easier than before," said Javedanfar, an Iranian expert at the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) in Herzliya.
Israel and many Western countries say Iran is developing nuclear weapons and have imposed increasingly stringent sanctions on the Islamic Republic to get it to halt its uranium enrichment drive. Tehran says its atomic programme is peaceful.
Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, refuses to recognise Israel's right to exist and is shunned as a terrorist organisation by the United States and the European Union. (Editing by Crispian Balmer and Alison Williams)